Development of real estate prices in Prague (Vensim)
Name: Development of real estate prices in Prague
Author: Petr Netolický, netp02, 19.1.2021
Used tool: Vensim PLE 8.2.0
Contents
- 1 Problem definition
- 2 Method
- 3 Model
- 4 Variables
- 4.1 Population
- 4.2 Mortality
- 4.3 Natality
- 4.4 Emigration
- 4.5 Imigration
- 4.6 Population increase
- 4.7 Population decrease
- 4.8 Unemployment rate
- 4.9 Inflantion
- 4.10 GDP of Czech republic
- 4.11 Mortages rates
- 4.12 Quantitative easing
- 4.13 Lack of flats
- 4.14 Abundance of flats
- 4.15 Investors
- 4.16 Price of real estates growth
- 4.17 Price of real estates decrease
- 4.18 Price of real estates
- 5 Results
- 6 Conclusion
- 7 Reference
- 8 Code
Problem definition
Every year, the price of real estate in Prague increases rapidly. As a result, young families can no longer afford to buy an apartment in the center of Prague, including a mortgage, and have to move to more educated villages and towns around Prague. The purpose of this simulation is to show trends and development of prices for flats, houses, and other real estates in Prague for next ten years based on real historical data available on the Czech statistical office. The aspects which are taken into count are the influence of the investors, mortgage rates, population, lack of flats, and others.
The picture shows the development of the price of apartments in Prague from the beginning of 2014 to the end of 2020. During this time, the price of real estate has increased by an incredible 84 %.
Method
The Vensim tool is used to simulate the problem. In this tool, it is possible to simulate the development of real estate in Prague over the next ten years.
Model
The final picture of the model:
Variables
Population
Population of the Czech Republic. This is a data from September 30, 2020, initial value 10 707 839 [2]
Mortality
Initial value is based on data from the Czech statistical office and it is set to 0,0105. [3]
Natality
Initial value is based on data from Czech statistical office and it is set to 0,0105. [3]
Emigration
This rate was calculated as emigrants / population. That is 21 300/10 707 839 = 0,002. [4]
Imigration
This rate was calculated as immigrants / population. That is 65 600/10 707 839 = 0,006. [4]
Population increase
Population growth in the Czech Republic. Calculated over the equation: Natality * Population * Immigration
Population decrease
Population decrease in the Czech Republic. Calculated over the equation: Mortality * Population * Emigration
Unemployment rate
Rate of unemployment people in Czech republic. It is in about 277 015 people. It is set to 0,038. [5]
Inflantion
The initial value of inflation was set on 0,03. [1]
GDP of Czech republic
Initial value is set as coeficient to 0,95. [2]
Mortages rates
Fio bank with 5 year of fixation - 1,68 %. This value was set in simulation. [3]
Quantitative easing
The government's intervention will increase inflation very noticeably, especially in times of pandemic. Therefore, its value is set to 0.31
Lack of flats
Lack of flats increases their prices. The significance coefficient is set to 0.9.
Abundance of flats
An abundance of flats decreases interest in flats increases their price. The coefficient factor is set to 0.2.
Investors
Investors' interest in flats increases their price. The coefficient factor is set to 0.55
Price of real estates growth
Factors that influence real estate growths Equation: (1+(Increased demand*Inflation*Investors*Lack of flats))*Price of real estates
Price of real estates decrease
Factors that influence real estate decrease Equation:(1+(Abundance of flats*GDP*Unemployment))*Price of real estates
Price of real estates
Equation: Price of real estates = Price estates growth - Price of real estates decrease Initial value is set on 94 300 kč/m2. [4]
Results
To interpret the results, I chose two graphs and tables with specific data. The first graph shows the development of the population in the Czech Republic. This graph was not the subject of this work, but it is an interesting secondary output. The second graph and table describe the main purpose of this work, namely the development of real estate in the next ten years. That is, from 2020 to 2030. The graph and table show that according to this simulation and available data, the price per square meter in Prague will be 148,018 Kč per square meter. Compared to the initial value from 2020, this is an increase of 57 %.
Conclusion
The simulation confirmed the trend of recent years when apartment prices in Prague are increasing the most in comparison with all other European cities. The estimate of a price increase of 57% for the next 10 years is still very modest, also due to the economic crisis. In ten years, this simulation can be compared with reality, and as the author of this study, I believe that the percentage increase will be even higher. For investors and ordinary citizens, investing in the purchase of an apartment in Prague is not only a suitable means of protecting money against inflation but even a means of getting rich.
Reference
- ↑ Deloitte real index Development of the selling price of flats from 2014 to 2020 [online]. [cit. 2021-01-20]. Recheable from: https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/cz/Documents/real-estate/CZ-Real-index_3Q_2020.pdf
- ↑ Český statistický úřad. Obyvatelstvo lidé [online]. [cit. 2020-01-20]. Reacheable from: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/obyvatelstvo_lide
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 Český statistický úřad. Narození a zemřelí [online]. [cit. 2020-01-20]. Reacheable from: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/graf-zive-narozeni-a-zemreli-v-ceske-republice
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 Český statistický úřad. Pohyb obyvatelstva [online]. [cit. 2020-01-20]. Reacheable from: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/pohyb-obyvatelstva-rok-2019
- ↑ Mpsv.cz Nezaměstnaní [online]. [cit. 2020-01-20]. Reacheable from: https://www.mpsv.cz/-/nezamestnanost-zustala-v-zari-na-3-8-pocet-uchazecu-mirne-klesl
