Limits to Growth ver2

Limits to growth

Limits to growth or limits to success is one of the system archetypes. This archetype is useful for gaining insight into patterns of behavior, which shows that growth cannot be continuous, there are always limits that eventually appear. This idea was introduced in the book “Limits to growth” by Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers and William Behrens in 1972.

Introduction

Scientists from all over the world are worried about overpopulation of our planet. It is clear right now that resources of the planet are limited, and some people already feel lack of them. The question is for how long our planet will be able to feed exponentially growing popularity. Exactly this situation describes the book “Limits to growth”, based on five elements – population, food production, industrialization, pollution and consumption of non-renewable natural resources. All these five elements have exponential growth. To understand when the factor of limited resources will stop this growth the archetype Limits to growth is perfectly suitable.

Generic Archetype

Limits to growth archetype is system with reinforcing growth loops. The archetype is combination of two basic structures: reinforcing loop and balancing loop.

Reinforcing loop

Reinforcing loop shows action and effect of its action. It is also known as positive feedback loop. This simple structure occurs in isolation from additional influences. The action from reinforcing loop produces result, which has influence on the same action. For example, number of births per year is growing and the population is growing too. If population is growing, number of birth per year is also growing. This cycle is continuous.

Balancing loop

Balancing loop has also name of negative or goal-seeking loop. It represents the gap between current state and desired state. The current state is the way things are right now, the desire state is goal or objective. That loop got its name - goal-seeking. It represents the situation, when there is a goal and efforts are taken to achieve it. The gap is a motivation for action and the size of gap shows the tendency to produce action. When gap is 0, there is no more motivation for action. Same as reinforcing loop, balancing loop occurs in isolation from additional influences. For example, to fulfil pool 100 l of water is necessary (desire state). The current level is 10 l (current state). The gap is 90 l. Next action is to add 90 l of water, then the current state will be 100 l, gap will become 0. The goal will be achieved.

Limits to growth archetype

The limits to growth structure consists, as it was said above, of a reinforcing loop, the growth of which, after successful performance, is breaking by balancing loop. The limits to growth shows that there is no unrestricted positive reinforcing dynamic. There are always limits that will make influence on growth. From the reinforcing loop the growing action adds to result, which then adds to growing action. At the same time this loop is interacting with balancing loop. Balancing loop operating with slowing action. The slowing action then deduct from the result.