Assignments WS 2017/2018

Simulation Proposal (feld00)

I am going to simulate a public transport system. The idea came from travelling around Europe, being surprised how often public transport systems fail in large cities and still they are very expensive. Prague public transport is rare exception. Buses, trams and subway trains arrive with minimal deviation from planned arrival time usually in seconds. I believe that there is sophisticated simulation software behind this.

In order to simplify the task let’s presume that it is not about money. We are not going to optimize costs and incomes. The purpose of this simulation is to optimize:

• Numbers of transportation units (TU) needed

• Frequency of releasing TUs

• their arrival time

All stated above in order to prevent people queueing on public transportation stops and to prevent transportation units from crowding. Microsoft Excel and SimProcess if needed will be used to perform this simulation.

for Monte Carlo or Simprocess you need solid quality hard data - what particular solid resources would you bas the simulation on? In addition I think you simplify it so much into some artificial "Numbers of transportation units", that would make the simulation unusable. I would suggest something less ambitious - spacial simulation(agent based, simprocess) of one type of transportation based on real data, if you find some.Oleg.Svatos (talk) 15:49, 15 December 2017 (CET)

You are right, maybe I can do less ambitious project. What about evacuation from a building:

It will be a Agent-based simulation model. I will use NetLogo software to build an building enviroment, which will include walls and staff inside. Agents will randomly move around the building. If they colide with a wall they turn different direction. If they colide with a staff member, he will navigate them to the exit. Is that possible?

feld00 (talk) 22:35, 15 December 2017 (CET)

The program in NetLogo would be able to import bitmaps with a building blueprints (plan of the building) where escape doors and agents position will be specified by color blocks.

feld00 (talk) 18:00, 18 December 2017 (CET)

There were similar simulations in past. Please, find it, and explain how you will differentiate.

Random movement of agents does not make sense to me. You should model people, not zombies. Tomáš (talk) 01:04, 19 December 2017 (CET)

Simulation Proposal (xvatj00)

Software: Vensim

I am a contemporary gospel choir conductor (choir and full professional band). We organize more or less 3 concerts a year. It has been a long time since we released our last CD and now we would like to earn money to be able to start recording a new one. For this purpose, I would like to find out those factors (such as choir performance, band performance, tickets’ price, concert’s location, etc.) that influence potential audience when choosing a band to go see and how to improve them, and thus get more people to come to our concerts - and earn more money for the tickets and in general. I will use a survey to get data about people’s preferences. Xvatj00 (talk) 17:45, 27 November 2017 (CET)

For this kind of simulation you would need ritch historical data so that you would be able to find premises you would then build the equations on (and to be able to verify the model when you compare its results with the historical data). Unfortunately the survey will not help you to quantify the parameters and the number of concerts is really low to be usable for such simulation. I probabbly would suggest a different topic. Oleg.Svatos (talk) 18:43, 30 November 2017 (CET)

I can get data up to 10 years back. The number of concerts included only those concert that are organized by us only, but we perform in many other concerts as well. Do you have any suggestions how to make the simulation possible? Thank you. Xvatj00 (talk) 18:59, 30 November 2017 (CET)

You would have to be able to define parameters that determine the demand for the individual concerts, and based on the data quantify them and quantify their impact on the demand for a concert. Based on that one could then discuss how the concert and its content should be se up so that you get maximum profit out of it. That is not a really easy ...Oleg.Svatos (talk) 15:07, 6 December 2017 (CET)

Intersection Optimalization (NEW ASSIGNMENT)

Software: NetLogo

Almost every day, I walk by the intersection of Anglická and Bělehradská / Škrétova. During peak hours, there are traffic jams on only one street leading to the intersection, which I find interesting. Because of this fact, I would like to simulate the intersection in order to find out if the lights are really optimally set there, and potentially, find out the optimal setting of the intersection’s lights.

As I’ve already mentioned, there are lights directing the intersection. Also, there is a tram track on the Bělehradská / Škrétova street which goes straight, while most of the cars coming from Bělehradská street turn left. I will use real intervals of all of the lights from a chosen time during peak hours, and the number of cars and trams coming to the intersection (including their speed, direction, etc.). At first, I will set the lights to constant ticks according to the reality to simulate the real situation. After that, I will try to find out an optimal setting of the lights and evaluate, what the optimal setting is or if it meets with the reality. Xvatj00 (talk) 18:48, 8 December 2017 (CET)

Please, try to obtain real data. Approved. Tomáš (talk) 04:05, 12 December 2017 (CET)

Social media post (Amelievh)

Software: Netlogo

Nowadays social media is a hot topic, and a lot of recruiters and other business people use linked in to attract new employees or just to share their thoughts.

For my simulation, I was thinking about researching the reach of a social media post. Someone posts something on LinkedIn, and depending on the amount of connection and amount of sharing I want to check how many people you can reach with one post. I will try to find real-world numbers and make it a useful tool for the business world.

Simulations on social media are typically problematic, mostly due to the lack of real data. I would recommend to try finding, something else. Tomáš (talk) 04:11, 12 December 2017 (CET)

New proposal: gender pay gap

Software: Vensim

The gender pay gap is a difficult problem to solve because it is caused by different reasons (education, age, part-time working ...). These are main reasons, but all these reasons are influenced by other aspects and factors.I want to simulate these different reasons + influences in Vensim and work out the most effective solutions to reduce the pay gap. I would specify on 1 country because data is different per country. Easiest and most interesting for me is Belgium.

What particular literature and data will you base it on? Oleg.Svatos (talk) 12:07, 15 December 2017 (CET)

I wrote a paper on this topic for another course wherefore I found a lot of statistical data. The EU publishes statistical data about this topic and reasons for it. I came up with the idea after seeing the Vensim example of SchoolLife which also showed a lot of influence on your future career. Only googling 'Gender Pay Gap Belgium' give you already a lot of publications and statistical information on this topic. --Amelievh (talk) 12:20, 15 December 2017 (CET)

OK, approved, but you have to well argument the parameters and equations of the simulation (including the citations to accesable resources) in the report which has to accompany the simulation so that we can verify that it is based on real data and makes sense.

Simulation Proposal (A_V)

Software: NetLogo

We own a zoo. We have a huge kennel for hamsters. We have observed a strange behavior of the hamsters. When a female hamster gives birth to babies (usually up to 12), the mother may come under the pressure of nurturing each and everyone of them. After giving the birth a female hamster becomes weak and may die if does not have enough food and vitamins. Also when the mother is weak, she can not lactate milk for all of her babies. Since the quality of food provided by the zoo does not always satisfy the hamster, the mother eats her weakest babies to get extra protein to feed other babies, which increases the probability of survival of her and the rest babies. Another reason of the deaths of hamsters, as mentioned above, is the adequate quality of food. If the food does not satisfy the hamsters, they do not eat it and the food rots by polluting the kernel which leads to an increased number of hamster deaths. In the simulation I will focus on how much the food quality, the amount of food and keeping the kernel clean influences the number of hamster deaths.

Makes sense, however it is necessary to obtain real data. Implementation of some of them will not be easy. Approved. Tomáš (talk) 01:06, 19 December 2017 (CET)

Simulation proposal (hram00)

Software: NetLogo

Imagine a beach by the ocean guarded by several lifeguards. The warmer the ocean is, the more jellyfish come. If there is a lot of jellyfish in the water, people often get stung. If they get proper treatment in less then five minutes, the pain goes away quickly end they can enjoy the day on the beach. Otherwise they're mad for the rest of the day. In case someone is alergic, the situation can get critical. My simulation should serve as a support for decision how many lifeguard should be placed on the beach and how far from each other to provide the best services and ensure the highest satisfaction of people on the beach and make sure no one will die because of jellyfish sting. The Simulation will be simplified but based on reality. There are no real data about number of jellyfish in the water but there are data about number of people stung every day. Based on current experience I can make a simulation which is close to reality. So far there is one lifeguard each 200 meters, at the begining of the season when the water is cold 70 F there is 0-2 people stung in one lifeguard's area, in the hot days by the end of the season (water has about 85 F) the numbers of people stung on each lifeguard stand go up to 100 a day and we know there are cases that it took too long to get help. Approved. Tomáš (talk) 01:09, 19 December 2017 (CET)

Hub airport (yaua00)

Software: NetLogo

As I study not in my home country I have to use plane quite often to get home and sometimes I have to go to a hub airport and change the plane there. So in my simulation I want to show the phenomenon of hub airports. Hub airports are used by one or more airlines to concentrate passenger traffic and flight operations at a given airport. They serve as transfer (or stop-over) points to get passengers to their final destination. The simulation will start with the certain amount of the airports and airplanes will appear at random locations. Airplanes will find a random airport and fly to it, leaving trails on screen to show their paths. Over time new airport and a new airplane will be built. The airports that have existed for the longest will obviously already have the greatest number of airplanes flying to them, but the goal of the simulation is to see when over some time after new airports are built, if the new airport is going to get more planes and if there is going to be new hub airport. Yaua00 (talk) 23:21, 12 December 2017 (CET)

I am afraid this does not make sense to me. First, the popularity of airports is not random and does not depend just on the time the airport exists. Second, "flying to random airports" - what would it mean? Third, in order this should make sense, the simulation would need to be much more complex.

Please, try something else. Tomáš (talk) 01:13, 19 December 2017 (CET)

Government Policies and Its Influence to Economy (xbilr00)

Software: Vensim

I would like to simulate an impact of government decision to a economy. The government will have few tools which can be fully influenced by political decisions (government spending, tax rates etc.). Based on this I will simulate an impact of these decisions to economic indicators (GDP growth, state budget incomes, inflation, state budget saldo etc.). This simulation should reflect a great complexity of each decision and its impact even to indicators which you will not imagine on the first sight.

This is very complex - the simulation has to make sense so the question is what particular literature and particular models will you base it on? Oleg.Svatos (talk) 20:46, 14 December 2017 (CET)

Ok. So what if only one variable would be a tax rate? I will define the exact rules in a special document.

This is pretty complex topic so it cannot be done on just spontaneous basis, you either have to have a reasonable model based on some solid literature, you would base the simulation on, or try something else.Oleg.Svatos (talk) 15:33, 15 December 2017 (CET)

Ok. My simulation would be based on neoclassical economy which is saying that lowering taxes boosts the economic growth. On the other hand it decreases state budget income but the economic growth should cause a contradictory effect. I would like to prove this theory on real numbers. I decided to focus in on Czech economy. I will use the data published by Czech Statistical Bureau about tax rates, GDP growth and state budget incomes. Of course there will be a little generalization but it should reflect the real trends. Based on this I will build my simulation. Is it ok now or should I rather find something else?

You can approch it this way, but then it is task for Monte Carlo - find the sensitivity of individual parameters on each other (based on the data and theory you specified) and then create a simulation in Excel. Agreed? Oleg.Svatos (talk) 12:21, 16 December 2017 (CET)

Ok. Is it approved from your side? I will probably visit you in January during your consultancy hours.

Since you agree, approved Oleg.Svatos (talk) 20:31, 16 December 2017 (CET)

Influenza A virus subtype H1N1 (alrw00)

Software: Netlogo

I would like to simulate the spread of the virus H1N1 via the breathed air in a small isolated population. The model should examine the emergent effects of aspects of a polluted air and human contact. The user controls the population’s tendency to practice abstinence, the amount of time a person in the population will stay healthy. Exploration of the first and second variables may illustrate how changes in human behavior in the isolated population contributes to increases in the prevalence of H1N1 as transmitted diseases, while exploration of the third and fourth may provide contemporary solutions to the problem.

Approved. Tomáš (talk) 01:14, 19 December 2017 (CET)

Rumour has it --Mashal (talk) 23:36, 15 December 2017 (CET)

Sotware: NetLogo

So, this simulation will be interesting for someone who wants to rule the world (who doesn't?). This is representation of dictatorial regime. There is one rumour, that can turn down this regime (not by itself, just people will go for revolution), so it's dangerous and government doesn't want it be heard. There are three kinds of agents there: POLICE, PEOPLE and WHISPERERS. Police try to find and catch the whisperers. Whisperers try to tell a rumour to people. The one from people group who hears the rumour becomes a whisperer. If one policeman can't find a whisperer for a long time government kills him (because he is either unprofessional or against the government). If the whole people become whisperers regime will lose. If the police will catch and kill all whisperers regime will win. I want to see how all this system depends on the number of police, whisperers and people.

I have two problems: first, spreading rumors does not necessarily mean a regime would fall. In the 80. in Czechoslovakia, no one trusted in the communist government, hovewer the regime didn't fall until multiple appropriate conditions occured. The main problem, nevertheless, is that this simulation is unverifiable. Your results will be completely artificial, you will struggle to prove they make any sense. Tomáš (talk) 01:21, 19 December 2017 (CET)

Isn't it the main problem of all social simulations? Okay, what about the model explores the stability of predator-prey ecosystems?

Generally, falsifiability is a critical property to call anything science. If you have no way how to prove something is false, it's magic. You are right that social science often works with softer problems, but still, it means just that you should formulate the problems more carefully.

If you don't like it, i can take my last simulation idea. I took that course last year and i had approved simulation idea, but i failed the final exam, so i didn't make this simulation. Can i take it?

Courier is coming to town

There's a small village with certain number of houses and it doesn't have its own local delivery service, thus once a week a delivery person drives up to this village from a bigger city. Each time this person has a different delivery list and his route is based around that list. If for some reason nobody was able to receive a package at the time that the delivery person was there, he has to come back to the same address until the package is delivered. The simulation in NetLogo will be creating the perfect route for the delivery person based on A* search algorithm, key parameters are the number of times, when delivery person must return to the house and the number of houses.

Approved Tomáš (talk) 01:10, 22 December 2017 (CET)

Multilingual community simulation (xlusm05)

Software: NetLogo

Linguists are concearned that half of the existing languages will be extinct by the end of the 21 century due to globalization. There are different factors that affect the language’s viability, most importantly: total number of speakers, trends for increase or decrease in the number of speakers, transmission to younger generations, its usage on the level of administration and education or only in informal domestic environment. I would like to create a simulation of a multilingual community where all the above factors are known and then apply this model on real data of a particular country. The goal is to define if some language is endangered and will soon become extinct.

Approved. Tomáš (talk) 01:22, 19 December 2017 (CET)

Simulation proposal (Ewoud Stroom)

Software : NetLogo

The catch of many commercial fish species in the North Sea has decreased over the past decades. Many fish stocks have shrunk as a result of overfishing. In addition, fewer fish are caught by catch limiting measures. The most important measure is the total allowable catch, that is used by all the countries that can fish in the North Sea. We can use data from ICES ( International Council fort he Exploration of the Sea). The TAC gives for every sort of fish the total number of fish that can be captured by all the European countries together in an fishing area. My intention is to create a simulation of a fishing area and based on historic catches of 1 kind of fish, determine how much of this fish there can be captured every day before it becomes extinct. There are different factors that influence this : the number of fishing ships in the fishing area, the total number of this sort of fish in the area, the procreation of this fish every day and the amount of fish every ship can capture every day depending on his capacity. First I would like to create a simulation where all these factors are known, and then apply this model on the real data of the North Sea. The goal is to define when a fish sort will soon become extinct.

The topic sounds good to me, I am just not sure if NetLogo is the proper platform for you. If I understand it well, Vensim should be the platform of choice. Or, please, explain, why NetLogo. Tomáš (talk) 01:25, 19 December 2017 (CET)

       I thought if I choose a hypothetical fishing area, NetLogo would give me the most visual opportunity to work with?

Simulation proposal (yaua00)

Software : NetLogo

Imagine a typical school classroom with the tables standing in rows and columns. And when the school year starts students have to choose with whom the will share a desk for the rest of the year. In real life there is a range of different criteria to choose a buddy, but in this simulation the criteria for the choice are similar abilities and popularity. But the more pairs are already created – the less choice the other students have, and they become less picky and accept a student they would not accept before. Over the time all the students will be paired, and I want to follow how the difference in abilities and popularity in pairs changes over time. Yaua00 (talk) 13:51, 20 December 2017 (CET)