Assignments WS 2013/2014

Fertility and intelligence

Demographic studies have indicated that in humans, fertility rate and intelligence tend to be inversely correlated - the more intelligent (measured by IQ tests) a person is, the lower total fertility rate it exhibit. Survival rates are also correlated with IQ. Does this mean, that the humans get dumber than they are now?

To relax the problem, lets assume that there is a designed, shared space (capacity) for fertility and IQ. What would be the final ratio between intelligence and fertility?

Each agent in the model would have a complementary values for inteligence and for having kids (i.e. iq 0.7, fert 0.3). The agents first search for a life partner (there is a higher probability for the ones with similar iq/fert to became life partners - the fact is related to IQ). After finding one, the probabilities of fertility of both parents will determine if they will have a kid, or kids. If so, the kids will acquire parents' averaged values with some possibility of mutation. What will happen if we populate a hypothetic world with two types of people - the clever ones and the fertile ones. Will there be a minority of the clever people, or will they became extinct? Will there be only one group left with a certain amount of iq (higher IQ than within the fertile group at the beginning but dumber than within the ones from the clever group)?

I will use Netlogo. Furthermore, depending on complexity of the problem, I would like to introduce basic features like agent age and general life time events, concept of family, etc...

Vojtěch Zrůst, Xzruv00

Generally, I like this assignment. Although it deals with a "soft" problem, what is usually tricky, you are approaching it right way, working with quantifiable facts, thus it is no problem. The only issue I see is how you will actually simulate finding of life partners? Please, explain. Tomáš 11:18, 10 December 2013 (CET)

Fire evacuation simulation

My intention is to create a model of evacuation process of real public building in case of fire emergency. My model considers people as agents who don’t know the way out and in case of fire, they have to find the way first. For this reason there are green tables on the walls of public buildings that should help people find their way to safety.

Agents will have to deal with fire and toxic smoke spreading through building on their way out and also other agents, who could crush them in panic.

For simulation I am going to use as environment 2D version of NetLogo 5.0.4.

My model will count the time of evacuation process and loses of people and help consider whether the green “Exit” tables are on right places and in right amount.

Tomáš Votruba, Xvott00 17:11, 7 December 2013 (CET)

Generally, it could be an interesting research. It should incorporate more complex shapes of premises than just rectangle (in our class example). The greatest problem could be the intelligence of simulated people. If it should be realistic, it could be quite tricky to develop. Please, could you describe a little bit more in detail, how people would navigate along the green warning tables? Tomáš 01:58, 8 December 2013 (CET)

Every agent would have own line of sight dependant on where he is facing and how far can he see. When fire alarm will sound, agents will look around and try to find green table. If he sees one, he goes to it. Every green table shows direction (not strictly in line) to the exit, and agent will go that direction, until he sees another table, which will give him another direction, or exit. Green tables will work as some sort of checkpoints, which will lead the agents to safety.

If agent doesn´t see any green table, he will try to look for one by looking around and walking randomly chosen direction. My intention is to use one floor of real existing public building (for example) Centrum Černý Most or similar. I am not telling which one so far, because I still don´t know whether I get proper plans, I could use. But it will definitely won´t be just a rectangle.

Tomáš Votruba, Xvott00 15:37, 8 December 2013 (CET)

OK, approved Tomáš 11:20, 10 December 2013 (CET)

Simulating and optimizing a process of opening an account at the branch of a bank

Currently I am working as a junior process manager at one of the banks in Prague and participating in a Lean Six Sigma project of optimization of an account opening by client visiting a bank`s branch. The goal of that project is to minimize time spent by client at a branch and the number of client`s signatures on various contracts by creating a unified multicontract form.

The goal of my simulation, which I`d like to make in SimProcess, is to simulate as-is process and identify, at which steps there is idle time and at which steps there could be a queue of customers. Afterwards I would simulate an improved process - that simulation should prove that the process is improved. The goal of simulation is the same as the goal of the real project that I take part in - it is to cut non-value added steps and reduce time spent by customer at the branch. Simulation will be based on real data. xziny00 20:16, 1 December 2013 (CET)

OK, approved Tomáš 01:37, 8 December 2013 (CET)

Political compass

I am interested to create a simulation of the political spectrum in the NetLogo. The model would simulate the distribution of political views of hypothetical country and the development of leader´s preferences or political parties that people vote. There would be several variable parameters of the population, population growth, a possible radicalization of society, etc. The model would shows electoral preference at the time on the graph and there would be also moving agents on the graphics part of the model. One tick would correspond to one week. The whole model would therefore ran for four years, which is the standard electoral term. In this time there could occur some populist events that affect the electoral battle (floods, the introduction of direct democracy, etc.)

Political compass would be based on the known distribution of the political spectrum into 4 quadrants. The horizontal axis would represent the position of voters and political parties to the "left" and "right". The position on the vertical axis would show whether the voter or political party rather libertarian, or authoritarian opinions. Agents (voters) will change slightly their electoral preference every tick. This would simulate a real reflection of the political situation as caving scandals, bad / good economic performance, etc.

Tomas Lizner, xlizt00, 00:11, 3 December 2013 (CET)

If this kind of simulation should be developed, I would think about systems dynamics instead of agent-based simulation. But, first and foremost I am generally not very happy about "soft" topics. It is very hard to measure such things like political attitudes. Often, the risk of similar simulation is that it will be nothing more than an academic exercise. Please, try to reconsider it. Tomáš 01:47, 8 December 2013 (CET)

OK, I have another idea of the model simulation in NetLogo. It would be a simulation of water flow throuhg Vltava water cascade. The principle of the simulation would be how fast can the individual dams release water without the river was on third flood stage (third flood stage is defined by flowrate). There would be agents: individual dams - they would have attributes such as inflow, outflow, retention, current capacity, the risk of rupturing etc. Between the dams would be used Links that represent the waterway between the dams (attributes: normal flow, current flow, flooding flowrate). These information I am able to find out through the internet.

There would be randomly generated a rainfall (or constant rain) at the beginning of the simulation and they would have an impact on the water cascade. One tick would correspond to one hour, during which time the water is slowly seeping into the ground itself. User would change sliders to make affect to the rate of outflow for individual dams and also there would be settings for weather. Changes in the running simulation would appear on the graph and in a simplified graphical display. I would use NetLogo, because simulation conditions such as a weather conditions and flowout rates of the individual dams can be changed in real time during the simulation, which makes the simulation more interesting and more relevant to reality.

Tomas Lizner, xlizt00, 14:11, 9 December 2013 (CET)

From field to forest

When a field is left alone it takes quite a time until forest spreads on it; this process is called secondary succession. At first pioneering plants such as grasses and herbaceous plants grow there, later invasive small bushes and trees are following. Later on fast growing evergreen trees appear, but they are overtopped with deciduous trees and the forest starts to appear. I would like to propose a model of this situation focused on the influence of the fertility of the field in the very beginning of the process, i. e. I propose the question how long it takes for a forest to appear based on primary fertility of a field.

The process of succession is described well on Wikipedia: [1].

The simulation will be realized as a NetLogo model. Agents: herbaceous plants, invasive bushes, evergreen trees, deciduous trees. Agents parameters: probability of survival to the next year, probability to spread.

Each agent can spread under different conditions, such as plants around (of the same kind and of other kinds as well) and fertility of the ground. Each plant lives for a specific period of time.

The fertility of the field is dependent on plants previously living there and on an initial value set in the model.

Alice Peková, xpeka00, 7 December 2013

First, is the fertility of soil the only driver of the process? And second, I don't like that you would work generally with trees, bushes, etc. instead of particular kinds. I guess there are probably substantial differences in parameters (like the speed of growth) between different kinds of trees, aren't they? Tomáš 02:53, 8 December 2013 (CET)

HIV Infection spread

The World AIDS Day is observed on the 1st of December, so the most recent one was just a week ago. Everybody knows that HIV virus spread is a serious world-wide problem and a lot of people know how the infection spreads. However, it is extremely hard to predict the future development.

Therefore I would like to simulate the HIV infection spread patterns in NetLogo. The agents in the simulation are people who can be either infected or not. Other parameters of the agents (and different subspecies of the agents) are: the fact whether the agent knows about his condition (important especially with infected patients who would generally consciously avoid more infection spread), sexual orientation, birth control method used. Other very specific parameters such as age, marital status, celibacy, sexual practics used could be also considered.

There are several ways how an individual can become infected. The approximate chances are listed on wikipedia page (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV/AIDS#Sexual). The fact that people who know about their condition can behave differently depending on their „level of conscience“ contributes to the complexity of the whole system.

Lucia Banakova, xbanl00, 9.12.2013

Intersection (vs. Roundabout)

During the last year almost every day I go around an intersection at Střelnická / Třebenická which has a really unique shape which reminds me of a Roundabout. I'd like to try to simulate the Intersection as an agent based simulation. There are 4 exits from the road:

- to Kaufland (biggest local shop, about 130 parking places)
- to Ďáblický hřbitov and local housing estate
- to Kobylisy
- to Střížkov

On every exit there are traffic lights with different timings, which I'll easily measure during one measurement at one specific time and day of the week. Most of the cars go straight on the main road from Kobylisy to Střížkov, they also arrive mostly at higher speeds than others leaving from the housing estate and Kaufland. I'd like to propose a simulation based model from NetLogo library with an intersection with 4 exists as is the real example. It will allow users to set frequency, deceleration, acceleration of cars from each direction. The lights will be set to constant ticks which will try to simulate the real scenario. I will omit the fact that cars entering the Kaufland parking place have to leave it also, it will behave as a normal street.

Then I'd like to try out a simplified model of Roundabout with the same parameters to compare which of these are better. The simulation would consider some safe distance before another car can enter the roundabout and will have same settings and parameters as intersection. Theoretically I'd love to have two models in one NetLogo project, but I'm yet unsure whether its possible.

Xklit17 09:58, 10 December 2013 (CET)

approved Tomáš 10:27, 10 December 2013 (CET)