Difference between revisions of "Flood evacuation"
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* '''Target''' - target is the goal patch, where the turtle after looking around want go. It is the highest point within its visibility. | * '''Target''' - target is the goal patch, where the turtle after looking around want go. It is the highest point within its visibility. | ||
* '''On-target''' - on-target? - boolean variable, which tells if the turtle reach its goal patch | * '''On-target''' - on-target? - boolean variable, which tells if the turtle reach its goal patch | ||
| − | * '''Another target''' - another-target - it is patch, substitute goal, which turtle is looking for during the way to the to target | + | * '''Another target''' - another-target - it is patch, substitute goal, which turtle is looking for during the way to the to target. In case of need, can use this goal instead of the previous target. |
| − | * '''Another target distance''' - another-target-distance represents the distance | + | * '''Another target distance''' - another-target-distance represents the distance from the turtle to another target |
* '''Despair index'''- despair-index represents | * '''Despair index'''- despair-index represents | ||
Revision as of 21:19, 18 January 2015
This project simulates the process of evacuation of people living on the coasted area and in the nearest destinations during the coming flood. People can survive outside the water level and they can save themselvs by climbing on the hills.
- Project name: Flood evacuation
- Class:4IT496 Simulation of Systems (WS 2014/2015) [1]
- Author: Kristýna Gubišová
- Model type: Agent-based simulation
- Software used: NetLogo 5.1.0
Contents
Problem definition
The European Union (EU) Floods Directive defines a flood as a covering by water of land not normally covered by water.[2] In the sense of "flowing water", the word may also be applied to the inflow of the tide. Some floods develop slowly, while others such as flash floods, can develop in just a few minutes and without visible signs of rain. Additionally, floods can be local, impacting a neighborhood or community, or very large, affecting entire river basins. Coastal areas may be flooded by storm events at sea, resulting in waves over-topping defenses or in severe cases by tsunami or tropical cyclones. A storm surge, from either a tropical cyclone or an extratropical cyclone, falls within this category.[3] In the history of mankind has often happened that people started to evacuate before the floods late and very disorganized, and there have been wasted a lot of people's lives. Flooding affects the entire world population.Think of floods in the Czech Republic in 2002 (225 000 people evacuated and 17 dead) and floods in 2004 in Indonesia (230 000 dead). From this point of view is very important to have an idea how could the flood evacuation on the coastal areas looks like so in order to save as many lives as possible.
Method of the simulation
As a simulation tool, I have chosen Netlogo, because in my flood evacuation simulation, there are lots of agents, which have some properties and behavior, that gives the simulation very complex behavior. Also Netlogo gives a good visualization of the simulation as a complex view and allows to change values quickly and easily and by that is giving enough data from various graph.
Global variables used in this simulation
- Actual flood height - actual-flood-height represents the height of the current water level
- Start flood - start-flood? boolean variable, which will starts the flood coming to the ashore
- Start evacuate - start-evacuate? boolean variable, which will alarm citizens and launch the evacuation of the people
- Rise count - rise-count auxiliary variable for rise-speed, to determine after how many tick the water level increase by the step
- Low - low is auxiliary variable in the procedure scale-coast
- High - high is auxiliary variable in the procedure scale-coast
- Range - range is auxiliary variable in the procedure scale-coast
- Xlow - xlow is auxiliary variable for procedure scale-coast-final
- Xhigh - xhigh is auxiliary variable for procedure scale-coast-final
- Xrange - xrange is auxiliary variable for procedure scale-coast-final
Terrain creation:
- Number of hills before diffuse - number-of-hills-before-diffuse is global variable which determines how many hills before diffuse will be generated at the start of the simulation
- Number of people - number-of-people is global variable which determines how many people will be generated at the start of the simulation
Flood parameters:
- Maximal flood height - max-flood-height is global variable which determines maximal height of the flood
- Flood height step - flood-height-step is global variable which determines height of the step, which the flood will make
- Rise speed - rise-speed is global variable which determines the speed of the rise of the water level. Every flood step will start in the second, when there is the multiple of the tick and the rise speed. 1 represents the maximal speed
People parameters:
- Visibility - visibility is global variable determines how far can people (turtles) see, they use it by looking for the highest situated place because of the rescue.
- Maximal despair index - max-despair-index represents global variable, where the failed attempts are load by looking for the target (the highest situated place). If the index reaches its maximum value, people stop looking for that place.
Variables of the turtles (people)
- Target - target is the goal patch, where the turtle after looking around want go. It is the highest point within its visibility.
- On-target - on-target? - boolean variable, which tells if the turtle reach its goal patch
- Another target - another-target - it is patch, substitute goal, which turtle is looking for during the way to the to target. In case of need, can use this goal instead of the previous target.
- Another target distance - another-target-distance represents the distance from the turtle to another target
- Despair index- despair-index represents
Detailed description of the simulation
Interface
Buttons
Setup - Setup the model of the simulation, create the hills and diffuse them of the country and create citizens (agents).
Go - Brings this simulation to life
Start flood - this button causes an increase of the water level, thereby generate a flood
Start evacuate - this button will begin evacuation of the citizens due to flooding
Start flood & evacuate - combines the functions of the buttons start flood and start Evacuate together
Sliders
Terrain creation parameters:
- number-of-hills-before-diffuse - generate how many hills before diffuse appear in simulation
- number-of-diffuse-repeating - generate how much will hills be smoothly aligned
- number-of-people - simply generate how many people will be living in this world
Flood parameters:
- max-flood-height - defines how maximum height of the flood (the highest points flooded)
- flood-height-step - defines how much increase the water level
- rise-speed - speed of the rise dependent on ticks.
How does the simulation work
At the beginnings, there is need to setup the whole world, where the simulation will run. Therefore there are the World creation parameters. In the first slider "number-of-hills-before-diffuse" there can be set the number of actual hills from 100 to 500. In the second slider "number-of-people" there can be the number of actual population set. It could be from the 1 to 5000 citizens.
There is also need to setup the flood parameters. There could be maximum flood height setup from 0 to 1000 and flood height step from 1 to 100. You can also setup the rise-speed from 1 to 30. Global variable rise speed works backwards it means, if you setup the rise speed as 1 the speed will be actually maximal. Rise speed = 2, 2 ticks = 1 step.
Code
In this section, there is a file with simulation code itself attached. The code is in the NetLogo model file with .nlogo suffix.
File
Results
Conclusion
In this flood evacuation simulation there is the terrain randomly generated. But this model can be applied on any other real country, there is only need to add real data like the map with altitudes and of course population of the area.
Other resources
Other resources I've also used when creating simulation of the flood evacuation:
File:13 Slovnicek Netlogo.pdf [4]
File:.Agent-based modelling II.pdf
References
- ↑ ŠALAMON, By Tomáš. Design of agent-based models: developing computer simulations for a better understanding of social processes. Řepín-Živonín: Tomáš Bruckner, 2011. ISBN 978-809-0466-111.
- ↑ European Union. Directives: DIRECTIVE 2007/60/EC OF THE EUROPIAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL ON THE ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT OF FLOOD RISK. In: L 228/27. 2007. Dostupné z: http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2007:288:0027:0034:EN:PDF
- ↑ Flood. Wikipedia.org [online]. 2015 [cit. 2015-01-18]. Dostupné z: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flood"
- ↑ Wilensky, U. (1999). NetLogo. http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo. Center for Connected Learning and Computer-Based Modeling. Northwestern University, Evanston, IL.
