Talk:Assignments WS 2022/2023

What will be simulated

The prediction of divorce rate in Czech Republic for the following 50 years.

The goal of the simulation

Divorce in the Czech republic must always contain at least one hearing in front of the court. Legally, there are many more parties involved, such as a notary, who must verify the signatures on all the important documents and many times, divorce lawyers are also necessary. To be able to satisfy the needs of the public, all the involved parties must have an idea about how many married couples are likely to get divorced in the years to come. This simulation will help prepare the courts, notaries and lawyers by making a prediction on the amount of divorces in the next 50 years. This will also help law students choose the field of law that they will specialize in by answering the question whether divorce lawyers will be necessary in the future or not. 

Method

Vensim will be used for this simulation. The used data will come from the Czech Statistical Office and possibly other sources (Refer to [1] and [2]), such as published studies on the most common reasons for divorce. When possible, the data about each reason of divorce will be also found and the simulation model will contain this data. 

[1] Scott, S. B., Rhoades, G. K., Stanley, S. M., Allen, E. S., & Markman, H. J. (2013). Reasons for Divorce and Recollections of Premarital Intervention: Implications for Improving Relationship Education. Couple & family psychology, 2(2), 131–145. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0032025

[2] Hawkins, Alan & Willoughby, Brian & Doherty, William. (2012). Reasons for Divorce and Openness to Marital Reconciliation. Journal of Divorce & Remarriage. 53. 453-463. 10.1080/10502556.2012.682898.

Electricity Spot Market Simulation--Ceta (talk) 01:13, 16 December 2022 (CET)

Simulation

I’ve been working as a professional in the Turkish Electricity Market (EXIST) for more than 10 years. I had the chance to practice in business some fundamental methods such as Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming (SDDP) for Hydro-Thermal dispatch optimization. The spot exchange of power or the power market itself has many examples of simulation. And the simulation of the uncertainties both in the short term and the long term are very critical in terms of new investments, portfolio management, and resource optimization.

Method

Both Excel and Netlogo simulations can be derived

• Inputs

- Portfolios

(Thermals: Coal-Fired, Natural Gas-Fired, Other Thermals; Renewables: Hydro, Wind, Solar PV, Other Renewables)

- Resource Prices (Eur/mwh)

- Installed Capacity (in MW)

• Variables

- Power Demand (MWh)

- Calendar Day

• Uncertain Events - Maintenance (availability)

- Climate Factors (Wind, Hydro Sources, Temperature effect on Load-Demand)

- Natural Gas Shortage (Due to Climate Factors and/or Supply)

• Outputs - Marginal Cost

- Market Clearing Prices (MCP)

• Goals - Objective Function Y= Min (MCP)

- Effects of Natural Gas Shortages

- Effects of Climate Factors

- Effects of Maintenance

- Effects of Calendar

- Sensitivity Analysis of commissioning a Nuclear Power Plant in the market

Citations

- Sensfuß, Frank; Ragwitz, Mario; Genoese, Massimo; Möst, Dominik (2007) : Agent-based simulation of electricity markets: a literature review, Working Paper Sustainability and Innovation, No. S5/2007, Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI, Karlsruhe,

- https://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0011-n-661574

- https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/28520/1/570113083.pdf

- https://www.tudelft.nl/evenementen/2021/powerweb/electricity-market-simulation-game ==

Data

- EXIST Transparency Portal https://seffaflik.epias.com.tr/transparency/

- Electricity Transmission Operator https://www.teias.gov.tr/en-US

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