Difference between revisions of "Assignments WS 2022/2023"
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[[User:Ruzv01|Ruzv01]] ([[User talk:Ruzv01|talk]]) 18:18, 18 December 2022 (CET) | [[User:Ruzv01|Ruzv01]] ([[User talk:Ruzv01|talk]]) 18:18, 18 December 2022 (CET) | ||
+ | :: I dont see a simulation in it yet. Elaborate it in more detail - what will you simulate exactly? since so far it looks like the more appliances the higher consumption ... Since you use the Vensim, what would be the feed back loops? [[User:Oleg.Svatos|Oleg.Svatos]] ([[User talk:Oleg.Svatos|talk]]) 20:48, 18 December 2022 (CET) | ||
<nowiki>~~~~</nowiki> | <nowiki>~~~~</nowiki> |
Revision as of 20:48, 18 December 2022
Please, put here your assignments. Do not forget to sign them. You can use ~~~~ (four tildas) for an automatic signature. Use Show preview in order to check the result before your final sumbition. |
Please, strive to formulate your assignment carefully. We expect an adequate effort to formulate the assignment as it is your semestral paper. Do not forget that your main goal is a research paper. It means your simulation model must generate the results that are specific, measurable and verifiable. Think twice how you will develop your model, which entities you will use, draw a model diagram, consider what you will measure. No sooner than when you have a good idea about the model, submit your assignment. And of course, read How to deal with the simulation assignment. |
Topics on gambling, cards, etc. are not welcome. |
In order to avoid possible confusion, please, check if you have added approved in bold somewhere in our comment under your submission. If there is no approved, it means the assignment was not approved yet. |
Contents
- 1 Effect of leniency programs on cartel rates by Baumareb (talk) 11:18, 7 December 2022 (CET)
- 2 The prediction of divorce rate in Czech Republic for the following 50 years
- 3 Edit: additional details
- 4 Crop Yield Forecasting
- 5 Electricity Spot Market Simulation by Ceta (talk) 01:13, 16 December 2022 (CET)
- 6 Profit in store vs e-shop
- 7 Comparison of strategies for finding a lost person in the forest
- 8 Saving for an apartment
- 9 Szenario Evacuation Model
- 10 Car Park Solution for a New Cinema
- 11 Ukrainian refugee crisis 2022
- 12 Blockade in Artsakh on its way to humanitarian disaster
- 13 Household electricity consumption
Effect of leniency programs on cartel rates by Baumareb (talk) 11:18, 7 December 2022 (CET)
Simulation
The leniency program of the European Commission offers the companies involved in a cartel either complete or partial immunity from fines if they self-report and hand over evidence. It was introduced in 1996, following the surge in amnesty applications in the wake of the 1993 revision of the Corporate Leniency Program of the US Department of Justice’s Antitrust Division. Reports from various implemented leniency programs showed that such programs led to numerous applications. However, despite the clear increase in leniency applications, the question poses itself as to whether the programs were also successful in a sense that the actual cartel rate in those countries declined. The simulation will be based on a study of Harrington and Chang from 2015, in which they concluded the following:
• The actual cartel rate decreases in case that the leniency program does not affect the non-leniency enforcement
• But: if the non-leniency enforcement is affected because resources are shifted to the prosecution of leniency application cases, there might be two possibilities, the cartel rate might increase.
This simulation focuses on the latter case. Assuming endogenized non-leniency enforcement, the introduction of a leniency program might have a differential impact on different industries. If a leniency program is introduced, the cartels that are about to collapse will seek to self-report. This in turn shifts resources from exposing active cartels to prosecuting cartels that are already collapsing. This creates more work for the authorities, who, instead of focusing on active cartels may now focus on dying cartels. This crowding-out effect coming about with the introduction of a leniency program shall be simulated in this project.
Goal
The simulation will have the following objectives:
- Illustrate the change in cartel rates and the change in the average life expectancy of a cartel triggered by the introduction of a leniency program in case of endogenized non-leniency enforcement for industries with unstable cartels (e.g. industries with a high number of competitors, or demand with more price elasticity) and for industries with stable cartels (e.g. industries with less competitors and demand with less price elasticity).
- Illustrate how many resources may be shifted from non-leniency enforcement to prosecuting leniency application cases without it having an undesired effect on the actual cartel rate.
Practical relevance
The simulation may be used by law enforcement officials to evaluate whether a leniency program leads to the desired effect (i.e. the decrease in the cartel rate) or not. Also, it can help for deciding whether the non-leniency enforcement needs to be strengthened to prevent the crowding-out effect.
Method
The described scenario is a multi-agent simulation in which the agents are pursuing a utility-based approach. Thus, the simulation will be done with NetLogo. The following features will be included into the simulation:
- For both industries with stable and industries with unstable cartels:
- Number of active cartels (dying after reaching avg. life expectancy)
- Number of competitors
- Average life expectancy of a cartel
- “Birth” of new cartels
- For leniency/non-leniency enforcement:
- Resources and their assignment to either leniency or non-leniency enforcement
- Capacity of taking down an active cartel
- Capacity of taking down a cartel based on leniency applications
The simulation will be based on the 2015 research from Harrington and Chang as well as on publicly accessible data from the European Commission regarding antitrust cases from 1964 until today.
Sources
- Harrington Jr, J. E., & Chang, M. H. (2015). When can we expect a corporate leniency program to result in fewer cartels?. The Journal of Law and Economics, 58(2), 417-449.
- Ordóñez‐De‐Haro, J. M., Borrell, J. R., & Jiménez, J. L. (2018). The European commission's fight against cartels (1962–2014): A retrospective and forensic analysis. JCMS: Journal of Common Market Studies, 56(5), 1087-1107.
Baumareb (talk) 11:18, 7 December 2022 (CET) Rebecca Baumann (baur00)
- This isn't an easy topic. Be careful about available data. Approved Tomáš (talk) 01:46, 15 December 2022 (CET)
The prediction of divorce rate in Czech Republic for the following 50 years
The goal of the simulation
Divorce in the Czech republic must always contain at least one hearing in front of the court. Legally, there are many more parties involved, such as a notary, who must verify the signatures on all the important documents and many times, divorce lawyers are also necessary. To be able to satisfy the needs of the public, all the involved parties must have an idea about how many married couples are likely to get divorced in the years to come. This simulation will help prepare the courts, notaries and lawyers by making a prediction on the amount of divorces in the next 50 years. This will also help law students choose the field of law that they will specialize in by answering the question whether divorce lawyers will be necessary in the future or not.
Method
Vensim will be used for this simulation. The used data will come from the Czech Statistical Office and possibly other sources (Refer to [1] and [2]), such as published studies on the most common reasons for divorce. When possible, the data about each reason of divorce will be also found and the simulation model will contain this data.
Edit: additional details
What all parameters will the simulation work with and how?
1. Number of marriages – the more marriages, the more divorces
a/ Number of people in the age 25 to 34 (i.e., the most common age to get married) – the more there is of these people, the more marriages there will be
b/ Number of divorced people in the age 40 to 49 (i.e., the most common age to get re-married after a divorce) – the more there is of these people, the more marriages there will be, however not as much as the number above
2. Micro causes of divorces = Top 10 causes of divorce as researched by the Czech Statistical Office, published yearly – the more common are these causes (alcoholism, infidelity etc), the more divorces there will be
a/ Ill-considered marriage
b/ Alcoholism
c/ Infidelity
d/ Lack of interest in the family (incl. abandon. of living together)
e/ Ill-treatment, criminal conviction
f/ Different characters, views and interests
g/ Health reasons
h/ Sexual discord
i/ Other causes
j/ Cause not given
3. Number of people in the age 40 to 49 – the more there is of these people, the more divorces there will be (it is the most common age to get divorced)
4. Macro causes of divorces
a/ Economic independence of women = the more economically independent women are, the more likely they are to divorce in case of an unhappy marriage – this will be evaluated through a comparison of data of average income of men vs. women
b/ Being religious – divorce is far less common for religious people.
What data source will be used for deriving the equations?
Based on my current research of data sources, the Czech Statistical Office has the all the data necessary for this paper.
[1] Scott, S. B., Rhoades, G. K., Stanley, S. M., Allen, E. S., & Markman, H. J. (2013). Reasons for Divorce and Recollections of Premarital Intervention: Implications for Improving Relationship Education. Couple & family psychology, 2(2), 131–145. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0032025
[2] Hawkins, Alan & Willoughby, Brian & Doherty, William. (2012). Reasons for Divorce and Openness to Marital Reconciliation. Journal of Divorce & Remarriage. 53. 453-463. 10.1080/10502556.2012.682898.
- Sounds interesting, but I miss more detail about the simulation. What all parameters will the simulation work with and how? What data source will be used for deriving the equations? Oleg.Svatos (talk) 11:03, 15 December 2022 (CET)
- Approved. Just make sure that the equtions, reasons for divorce and their impact on divorce rate are properly quantified.Oleg.Svatos (talk) 07:23, 17 December 2022 (CET)
Crop Yield Forecasting
Simulation
Crop growth and development simulations and yield forecasting will be performed using variables such as crop type, planting date, soil type, soil texture, and climate data (temperature, rainfall, etc.).
Problem definition
Arable land is increasingly limited, while the world's population has steadily been increasing over the years. In order to meet rapidly rising demand, production must be increased while natural resources must be protected. New agricultural research is needed to provide information on how to achieve sustainable agriculture in the face of global climate variability. Predicting crop yield under different conditions, such as different irrigation regimes, planting dates, and crop management practices, has become critical for farmers and other stakeholders who use these predictions to make more informed decisions about how to allocate resources, such as labor, equipment, and inputs, to maximize yield and productivity.
Method
Crop yield simulation tools include AquaCrop, DSSAT, and CropSyst. These tools use mathematical models to simulate crop growth and development based on input data like weather, soil type, and management practices. These tools use this data to estimate the crop's potential yield, as well as other important factors like water use and crop evapotranspiration. For this assignment I will be using AquaCrop which is a crop water productivity model developed by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). It is used to simulate crop growth and yield under various environmental and management conditions. AquaCrop simulates crop growth and development, and estimates yield based on soil conditions, climate, irrigation, and management practices. The application gives access to various FAO databases with all the necessary data needed to perform a comprehensive simulation of the crop yield.
Citations
- Y. Lu, C. Wei, M. F. McCabe, and J. Sheffield, “Multi-variable assimilation into a modified AquaCrop model for improved maize simulation without management or crop phenology information,” Agricultural Water Management, vol. 266, p. 107576, May 2022, doi: 10.1016/j.agwat.2022.107576.
- P. N. Kephe, K. K. Ayisi, and B. M. Petja, “Challenges and opportunities in crop simulation modelling under seasonal and projected climate change scenarios for crop production in South Africa,” Agriculture & Food Security, vol. 10, no. 1, p. 10, Apr. 2021, doi: 10.1186/s40066-020-00283-5.
- N. T. Olivera, O. B. Manrique, Y. G. Masjuan, and A. M. G. Alega, “Evaluation of AquaCrop model in crop dry bean growth simulation,” Revista Ciencias Técnicas Agropecuarias, vol. 25, no. 3, pp. 23–30, Accessed: Dec. 10, 2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.redalyc.org/journal/932/93246970003/html/
- N. Pirmoradian, Z. Saadati, M. Rezaei, and M. R. Khaledian, “Simulating water productivity of paddy rice under irrigation regimes using AquaCrop model in humid and semiarid regions of Iran,” Appl Water Sci, vol. 10, no. 7, p. 161, Jun. 2020, doi: 10.1007/s13201-020-01249-5.
Pierreatekwana (talk) 15:06, 15 December 2022 (CET)
- Topic souds interesting, but the proposed simulation tool has to be one of the ones we have used in our class ( as specified in How to deal with the simulation assignment:
One of your key course requirements is a submission of simulation. You choose your topic yourself, the same as a method and a tool that you will use. It could be any of the development environments we have used (Excel, Simprocess, Netlogo, or Vensim).) Oleg.Svatos (talk) 07:05, 17 December 2022 (CET)
Electricity Spot Market Simulation by Ceta (talk) 01:13, 16 December 2022 (CET)
IDEA 2 Pumped-storage hydroelectricity (PSH), or pumped hydroelectric energy storage (PHES), is a type of hydroelectric energy storage used by electric power systems for load balancing. The method stores energy in the form of gravitational potential energy of water, pumped from a lower elevation reservoir to a higher elevation. Low-cost surplus off-peak electric power is typically used to run the pumps. During periods of high electrical demand, the stored water is released through turbines to produce electric power. Although the losses of the pumping process make the plant a net consumer of energy overall, the system increases revenue by selling more electricity during periods of peak demand, when electricity prices are highest. If the upper lake collects significant rainfall or is fed by a river then the plant may be a net energy producer in the manner of a traditional hydroelectric plant.
Pumped-storage hydroelectricity allows energy from intermittent sources (such as solar, wind) and other renewables, or excess electricity from continuous base-load sources (such as coal or nuclear) to be saved for periods of higher demand. The reservoirs used with pumped storage are quite small when compared to conventional hydroelectric dams of similar power capacity, and generating periods are often less than half a day.
Problem definition Company PMP wants to build a new pumped storage hydroelectricity power plant across a river. This facility will be generating power during the peak hours of the day because of its half day upstream reservoir capacity. And for the off-peak hours it will be pumping up the water that is collected in its downstream reservoir using the power from the grid. So, basically, during the day it will be generating power and selling it with peak prices, and during the evening it will be consuming energy and will need to buy it for off peak prices. The Company PMP is trying to decide about downstream reservoir capacity. To decide it they need to simulate the system with water inflow input and market prices to decide what proportion of upstream and downstream reservoirs would be optimal to decide on size of downstream reservoir.
Parameters:
Stream inflow (m3/s or m3/day or another conversion)
Upstream active reservoir volume = half day generation of hydro power plant
Installed capacity of hydro power generation (MW)
Precipitation (Random normal)
Evaporation (0.1 percentage lost every hour)
Generator power factor (How much water volume needed for per MWh generation)
Pump flow capacity (m3/s or m3/day or another conversion)
Pumping consumption factor (How much MWh needed per m3)
Initial active reservoir levels (percentage full)
Spot Market Prices (Usd/MWh)
Upstream reservoir maximum capacity (m3) (Fixed)
Downstream reservoir maximum capacity (m3) (Variable)
Compulsory flow schedule back to river (m3) (Fixed)
Method Most probably Vensim simulation will be done.
Upstream active reservoir volume = Initial reservoir volume level (UpS) + stream inflow + pumped inflow – penstock outflow (to generation) + precipitation – evaporation (Between 0 and Upstream reservoir maximum capacity (m3))
Downstream active reservoir volume = Initial reservoir level (DwS) + penstock outflow (from generation) – pumped inflow (Between 0 and Downstream reservoir maximum capacity (m3) (Variable)) - compulsory flow schedule back to river
Revenues = SUM (Power Generated x Spot Market Price) - SUM (Power Consumed x Spot Market Price)
Power Generated = Generator power factor x penstock outflow (to generation)
Power Consumed = Pumping consumption factor x pumped inflow
Goal To simulate and determine the ratio of Upstream reservoir maximum capacity / Downstream reservoir maximum capacity
Sources: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pumped-storage_hydroelectricity https://seffaflik.epias.com.tr/transparency
IDEA 1
Problem definition
Anthony is as a portfolio manager in the power company Goodpower. Goodpower has a portfolio of hydro power plants. Goodpower is a market participant in a liberated market structure. The power generation can be sold either in spot market with volatile prices, or it can be sold with a yearly fixed price on over the counter (OTC). Goodpower assigned Anthony responsible for optimization of power generation revenue. Now Anthony needs to decide on how much generation to risk in the volatile spot market and how much to risk with the fixed price. After contacting the power brokers in OTC market, he was offered the following deals:
1. A baseload deal with a fixed price.
2. An off-peak hours deal with a fixed price.
3. A peak hours deal with a fixed price.
All of the deals will have random limited volumes. A combination of peak and off-peak deal with the same volume is basically equal to a baseload deal with the same volume.
Peak deal represents the constant load between 08:00 - 20:00 (12 Hours).
Off-Peak deal represents the constant load between 20:00 - 08:00 (12 Hours).
Baseload deal represents the constant load for 24 hours.
Goal
Simulation that can be used as a decision support tool when trading a power portfolio.
Method
Monte Carlo simulation in Excel environment will be created. The historical spot prices will be used to determine fixed deal prices. The historical generation values will be used to determine generation scenarios (wet season - high.generation, average generation, dry season – low generation). The volatility of spot market prices will be based on again historical spot prices. The simulation of 1 year = 8760 hours will be generated. Since, the stability spot market prices in winter are dependent on natural gas shortages, these shortage scenarios will be added to the simulation.
The natural gas shortage effect will be extracted from past price data. There's a price cap for the highest bid and the spot market prices equal to highest bid means the supplied amount of power in the market can barely match the demand. So the highest bid gets selected to match the demand as much as possible.
Model parameters
• Hydro Generation scenarios:
- Wet season – high generation (MWh)
- Average season - average generation (MWh)
- Dry season – low generation (MWh)
• Market data:
- Volatile spot market prices (USD/MWh)
- Fixed deal prices will be based on past year spot market prices (While OTC market prices can’t be publicly viewed)
Data
- EXIST Transparency Portal https://seffaflik.epias.com.tr/transparency/
- From the description I am not sure that I understnad what simulation is being proposed. What will the simulation actully look like, what is it going simulate exactly? If you want to take into consideration the effcts like the Effects of Natural Gas Shortages, how will you quantify the strentg of such effect? Oleg.Svatos (talk) 21:47, 17 December 2022 (CET)
Professor I made changes in my simulation. Can you please check?
Profit in store vs e-shop
Method: System Dynamics
Software: Vensim
Simulation
An unnamed company that sells carpets has its own store in Prague. During COVID-19 the company reopened an e-shop, so it currently has two mutually supporting sales channels. Both types of stores have their advantages and disadvantages. At the same time, there are various factors that affect the profit. Examples of these factors are the following: customer satisfaction and needs (carpet quality, order processing speed, price, etc.), expenses (advertising, rent, employees, etc.), the possibility of expansion, etc. To ensure customer satisfaction the company should make some expenses.
Model parameters
- Expenses
- fixed
- variable
- Revenues
- customer satisfaction -> influence amount of expenses
- Product quality,
- Speed of orders/purchases processing,
- Opening hours, working on weekends and holidays,
- The possibility of picking up the order in the store/speed of delivery
- Increasing customer satisfaction using sales and giving gifts for the order
- Store availability
- Parking
- Complaints fees
- Services: floor coverings including consultations and estimates, whipstitch of carpet
- price
- a number of sales, etc.
- customer satisfaction -> influence amount of expenses
The goal of the simulation
The goal of this simulation is to find out what parameters can increase profit the most (individually for each type of store), to find a balance between expenses to satisfy the customers in order to achieve the profit, and in the end to compare these parameters.
Data
Real data provided by the owners of the store
Ploo00 (talk) 01:41, 16 December 2022 (CET)
- Please elaborate in more detail as we have discussed in class Oleg.Svatos (talk) 07:17, 17 December 2022 (CET)
- I changed the assignment a little bit. Can you please look at it? Ploo00 (talk) 19:50, 17 December 2022 (CET)
- If you have the data to derive the parameters from, than Approved. Describe in the report how you have derived the effects of and on the customer satisfaction. Oleg.Svatos (talk) 21:52, 17 December 2022 (CET)
- I changed the assignment a little bit. Can you please look at it? Ploo00 (talk) 19:50, 17 December 2022 (CET)
Comparison of strategies for finding a lost person in the forest
Author: Tomáš Kadaně (kadt02)
Type: Multi-agent
Software: NetLogo
Description:
The simulation will focus on comparing the times needed to find a lost person in a forest (area with trees). The metric to compare the strategies will be the number of ticks needed to find the wanted person. Both the person being searched for and the searcher will be in a random location at the beginning of the simulation. Within the simulation, I will take several measurements for each strategy and number of searchers (1 to 5), so that the number is statistically significant and use, for example, the means to compare which strategy is the most appropriate.
The model will be able to simulate several search strategies
- one step forward and then turn of random degree (-45 to 45 degrees), so random walk
- walk straight until it hits the edge of the forest or tree, then turn and continue walking straight
- first walk to the nearest corner of the forest and then a some kind of serpentine search
- possibly other strategies
Goals:
Finding the most appropriate strategy for finding a person in the forest depending on the number of people searching.
Agents:
- Searchers (e.g. police officers)
- Lost person
Parameters:
- Number of searchers
- Type of strategy
- Ticks needed to find person
Possible extensions:
- Searchers with certain pace of walking
- Finding the person won’t mean be at same location but seeing it for some distance (again certain ability of the searcher to see for certain distance)
- Cooperation of finders (formations, place distribution)
- Lost person will be moving when being looked for
Kadt02 (talk) 16:01, 17 December 2022 (CET)
Saving for an apartment
Author: miln02
Problem definition
Jon has finally graduated to be an engineer and has found his first job. As he is living with his parents and doesn’t own his apartment, he made the decision to start saving so he can buy an apartment in the next 15 years. He already has some money that he has saved so far just sitting in his bank account, so he will use that as an initial investment, and after that he will invest a fixed amount every year. He now must make a very important decision. Where should he invest his money? After doing some research, he focused on choosing between four different options:
1. Deposit money in the bank.
2. Purchase government bonds.
3. Invest in one of the world indices.
4. Invest all the money in one stock.
Goal
Create simulation that can be used as a support when making investment decision.
Method
For helping Jon to make a decision, I will use Monte Carlo simulation and Excel as an environment. The historical yield and volatility data will be used to calculate the average behaviour of all 4 options, and we will simulate possible results after 15 years. Since it can’t be expected that the market will be stable for all 15 years, economic crises will be generated.
Model parameters
- Investments:
-Initial one-time investment
-Fixed annual investment
- Market data:
-Deposits (Rate)
-Government bonds (Yield, volatility)
-Index (Yield, volatility)
-Stock (Yield, volatility)
- Economic crises probability
Sources
- Bank website for deposit rates
Miln02 (talk) 16:17, 17 December 2022 (CET)
- Approved Oleg.Svatos (talk) 22:14, 17 December 2022 (CET)
~~~~
Szenario Evacuation Model
Author: Julian Bleyer
Simulation
My idea is to recreate a building (e.g. a stadium, hall, e.g. in Prague) in Prague and simulate how long it takes to evacuate all the people. Possible are also other Szenarios, e.g. with fire, or water is flooding into the room. The model should be based on a real event site or building, which is then specified.
Goal
The aim is to adapt different strategies and parameters during the escape. For example, people can panic, genders act differently, or the age of the people has an influence on how quickly they leave the place. The aim is to simulate how long it takes to leave the stadium, for example. If it takes too long, it is recommended to adjust the number of escape routes.
Practical relevance
This is especially important because in case of attack plans, a quick evacuation must be possible. The model can be used to adapt escape plans if necessary.
Method The idea is to simulate in Netlogo, alternatively a similar software.
Model Parameters
-Number of persons -Age distribution (children, adults, seniors) -Panic tendency -escape strategy -other factors
Sources
Location maps of venues, e.g. the o2 station in Prague or a Cinema room, number of tickets sold, gender distribution depending on the event, etc.
~~~~
Julian Bleyer (talk) 14:16, 18 December 2022 (CET)
Car Park Solution for a New Cinema
Author: kane02
Problem definition
A brand-new cinema is opening at Vypich in 6 months at one of the busiest streets in the region. The ambitious owners decided to use their extra budget to operate a small parking space right in front of the cinemas entrance for providing a space to park for customers and generate further profits. Planned parking space will have fixed expense for each month but the land itself can be extended. Owners are now in need of expertise on how to approach this issue. Their requirements consist of.
1. Counter on when a car enters and departs. 2. Create a receipt depending on hours. 3. Take reservations and allocate the space.
Goal
1. Create simulation that optimizes the potential waiting time, price, and number of the parking space for stake holders. 2. Offer solution on how to increase profits.
Method
For getting the job done I shall be using NetLogo to create the simulation based on client-side metrics and goals.
Model parameters
1. Park Timer
a. Counter for calculating total minutes b. Boolean checker for availability
2. Billing
a. Set up rates per hours b. Conditions on specific days
3. Reservation and Allocation
a. Reservation timer will adjust the potential waiting timer b. When space is reserved new set of behaviour and conditions apply but price is fixed
Sources
https://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/models/
https://jmvidal.cse.sc.edu/netlogomas/
Kane02 (talk) 14:10, 18 December 2022 (CET)
~~~~
Ukrainian refugee crisis 2022
Author: BortnikSvitlana
Problem definition
The current war in Ukraine has created the greatest refugee migration to OECD countries since World War II. People have been forced to evacuate their homes in search of safety, protection, and aid due to the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, which has resulted in civilian casualties and the damage of civilian infrastructure. Since the Russian Federation's invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, there have been more than 5.3 million refugees in Europe.
Goal
The goal of this simulation is to build an agent-based model (ABM) to study dynamics of refugee migration due to the war in Ukraine 2022.
Method
The apparent choice should be a multi-agent simulation because we are dealing with people moving around and having attributes. For this simulation, I've chosen to use NetLogo 6.3.0.
Model parameters
-Population
-Country
-Number of refugees
-Age distribution (children, adults, seniors)
Sources
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1312584/ukrainian-refugees-by-country/
https://data.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine
https://www.migrationdataportal.org/ukraine/crisis-movements
BortnikSvitlana (talk) 16:13, 18 December 2022 (CET)
~~~~
Blockade in Artsakh on its way to humanitarian disaster
Author: Hakobyan Irena
Problem definition
Currently, 120.000 people in Artsakh are in blockade. It has become impossible to deliver food, particularly bread and flour, as well as other basic necessities to these communities. It is stated that the provocative actions of Azerbaijan may lead to a large-scale humanitarian disaster. The goal of the simulation is to examine how many days the imported food would be enough for this number of population.
Method
For this simulation, I'll use NetLogo 6.3.0, as it's based on population and supply attributes.
Model variables
- Population
- Food supply
- Country
Sources
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Artsakh_blockade
Household electricity consumption
Author: ruzv01
Problem definition
Household electric energy consumption is a significant problem because it contributes to climate change and can be expensive for individuals and families. The production of electricity often involves the burning of fossil fuels, which releases greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and contributes to global warming. In addition, as more and more devices and appliances in homes become electrified, the demand for electricity increases, leading to higher energy bills.
Goal
The goal of simulating household electric energy consumption is to model and predict the electricity usage of a home. This can help individuals and families understand their energy consumption patterns and identify ways to reduce their energy use, as well as help utilities and energy companies predict and plan for electricity demand. By understanding and optimizing household electric energy consumption, we can work towards a more sustainable and efficient energy system.
Method
The simulation will be done in Vensim.
Model parameters
- Household size (m2)
- Number of appliances and devices
- The number of people living in a household
- Renewable energy sources (If a household has installed renewable energy sources)
- Energy price
- Home age (older homes may be less energy efficient than newer homes)
Sources
https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/spotreba-paliv-a-energii-v-domacnostech
https://www.kurzy.cz/komodity/cena-elektriny-graf-vyvoje-ceny/
Ruzv01 (talk) 18:18, 18 December 2022 (CET)
- I dont see a simulation in it yet. Elaborate it in more detail - what will you simulate exactly? since so far it looks like the more appliances the higher consumption ... Since you use the Vensim, what would be the feed back loops? Oleg.Svatos (talk) 20:48, 18 December 2022 (CET)
~~~~