Difference between revisions of "Covid 19 - Contacts"
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In this village, the spread of Covid 19 is simulated. Residents can become infected by being close enough to infected residents for a sufficient amount of time. If the contact is long and close enough for an infection, the person turns orange. If an infection has occurred, the chain of infection is represented by a link | In this village, the spread of Covid 19 is simulated. Residents can become infected by being close enough to infected residents for a sufficient amount of time. If the contact is long and close enough for an infection, the person turns orange. If an infection has occurred, the chain of infection is represented by a link | ||
| − | The person now infected also become contagious after an incubation period, turns red, and can infect other persons at home, on routes, or at one of the points of interest. | + | The person now infected also become contagious after an incubation period, turns red, and can infect other persons at home, on routes, or at one of the points of interest. Infection lasts between 7 and 10 days, after which time the person may die from the infection (triangle) or become immune and turn purple. |
===world=== | ===world=== | ||
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===dynamic elements of the world=== | ===dynamic elements of the world=== | ||
| − | In the following, a given number of inhabitants is generated. When generated each person is assigned a random home (''one-of houses'') and a random point of interest (''one-of pois''). | + | In the following, a given number of inhabitants is generated. When generated each person is assigned a random home (''one-of houses'') and a random point of interest (''one-of pois''). |
| − | === | + | ===xx=== |
==Variables== | ==Variables== | ||
Revision as of 21:04, 19 January 2021
Contents
Problem definition
The global Covid 19 pandemic is impacting everyone's lives. To contain the pandemic, mass events have been banned in Germany since 2020 and masks must be worn daily on public transport and in stores. These measures are increasingly criticized and disregarded by some parts of the population.
This simulation is used to illustrate the impact of bans on mass gatherings on infection rates and the extent to which wearing masks protects all members of society.
Method
NetLogo is used for the simulation. This allows the representation of autonomous agents.Thus, pandemic behavior can be well represented in a situation where people/agents move differently in the daily routine. Hence, reality can be suitably represented in an abstracted model to show the specifics of a pandemic spread.
Model
The model shows the abstracted version of a village. The houses of the inhabitants and points of interest (office, shops...) are randomly distributed through the village. The model simulates the daily routine of the inhabitants. The day is determined by a fixed number of ticks. At the start of a day the inhabitants are in their permanently assigned houses. Around 8 a.m. all residents leave their houses and go to one of the different points of interest. In the afternoon, residents return to their homes.
In this village, the spread of Covid 19 is simulated. Residents can become infected by being close enough to infected residents for a sufficient amount of time. If the contact is long and close enough for an infection, the person turns orange. If an infection has occurred, the chain of infection is represented by a link The person now infected also become contagious after an incubation period, turns red, and can infect other persons at home, on routes, or at one of the points of interest. Infection lasts between 7 and 10 days, after which time the person may die from the infection (triangle) or become immune and turn purple.
world
The world consists of a 64x64 patches standard Netlogo world.
static elements of the world
At the beginning of each run the world is filled with its static elements, namely the points of interest and houses, each of which takes a random position. Houses are permanently assigned to agents. The number of houses is a quarter of the number of people to be generated, which is set at the start. A group of agents assigned to a house is called a family. One family lives per house.
Points of interest (pois) are stores, offices, schools etc. Which will be repeatedly visited by groups of people.
dynamic elements of the world
In the following, a given number of inhabitants is generated. When generated each person is assigned a random home (one-of houses) and a random point of interest (one-of pois).
