Atlantic Bluefin Tuna Population

Bluefin tuna (thunnus thynnus) is found in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Tunas can live up to 40 years and grow over 4 m and weight more than 600 kg, yet typical specimen is half that size. In the Atlantic the species is divided into two stocks - Eastern and Western. It is estimated that the bluefin tuna population has fallen by 80 % since 1970s [1]. Bluefin tuna is extremely popular especially in Japanese cuisine. This has caused a huge decline in the Pacific Bluefin Tuna species; it is estimated that only around 13 to 20 000 tonnes remain in the Pacific Ocean. Therefore, various organisations are attempting to take measures to prevent this tuna species to die out.

It is thought that Atlantic Bluefin Tuna (or BFT for short) might face the same fate soon, if nothing is done and the species will continue to be overexploited. BFTs are referred to as “pandas of the ocean”. Their survival is crucial to provide reassurance and hope that the humankind is able to pull the worldwide sustainability crisis back from the brink of collapse [2].

Problem definition

It is thought that the numbers of tuna populations have plummeted due to overfishing. Yet some studies claim, that overfishing is not the main cause of the tuna population reduction. Christelle Ravier and Jean-Marc Fromentin [3] in their paper "Long-term fluctuations in the eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean bluefin tuna population" came to the conclusion that the bluefin tuna population may be influenced by biotic and environmental factors more than by overexploitation.

In this study [4] the researchers came to the conclusion, that about 1/3 of the fisheries located in the eastern Atlantic and the Mediterranean are overfished. The Mediterranean is also one of the main areas for the BFT. As BFTs are warm-blooded fish, they spawn in warm waters. Also, from the historic point of view, there is data available on fishery overexploitation even from the 16th century.

Therefore, the aim of this simulation is to create a model based on available data to answer the question, whether overfishing is truly the only reason of tuna population decline.

Method

Research

As a first step, an extensive research was conducted to gather the most relevant papers, articles and other sources, concerning BFT population, farming, quotas, statistics, environment and fishing.

The most relevant appeared to be:

• The impact of massive fishing of juvenile Atlantic bluefin tunas on the spawning population (1949-2010) – by José L. Cort and Pablo Abaunza [5]
• Atlantic bluefin tuna: population dynamics, ecology, fisheries and management – by Jean-Marc Fromentin and Joseph E. Powers [3]
• Bluefin tuna (Fisheries – European Comission) [1]
• Consequences of variations in carrying capacity or migration for the perception of Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) population dynamics – by Jean-Marc Froemntin and Laurence T. Kell [6]
• Forty years of fishing: changes in age structure and stock mixing in northwestern Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) associated with size-selective and long-term exploitation – by Siskey et al. [7]
• Long-term fluctuations in the eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean bluefin tuna population – by C. Ravier [4]
• Report of the standing committee on research and statistics – by ICCAT [8]
• Science-based management will ensure a healthy future – by Richard Herrmann [9]
• Sustainability of Atlantic Bluefin Tuna Stocks: The Problem of Overfishing – by Erini Lemos [2]
• The spectre of uncertainty in management of exploited fish stocks: The illustrative case of Atlantic bluefin tuna – by Jean-Marc Fromentin et al. [10]

Data Acquisition

Most data are available only in a relative notation (usually in metric tonnes), due to the fact that the actual numbers of BFT are not known and the population is (guess)estimated based on the BFT caught, tagging initiatives and BFT catching for scientific purposes. Yet it is a stated fact, that the BFT is an endangered species by the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) [11].

According to [10]: „..ABFT population structure is likely to be more complex than the current two stocks hypothesis, with probably at least two populations within the Mediterranean. If this is confirmed, ICCAT might need to change the current two stock management framework to avoid the risk of eroding the Mediterranean bluefin tuna sub-populations,…„. For the purposes of this assignment, the BFT is divided only to two groups – Eastern and Western.

Current state

In [4] indexes are introduced to hep to determine whether the BFT population displays any signs of being overfished or of overfishing. The biomass index presents Failed to parse (MathML with SVG or PNG fallback (recommended for modern browsers and accessibility tools): Invalid response ("Math extension cannot connect to Restbase.") from server "https://en.wikipedia.org/api/rest_v1/":): {\displaystyle {Current Biomass (B) \over B producing MSY (B_MSY)} } and fishing mortality index presents Failed to parse (MathML with SVG or PNG fallback (recommended for modern browsers and accessibility tools): Invalid response ("Math extension cannot connect to Restbase.") from server "https://en.wikipedia.org/api/rest_v1/":): {\displaystyle {Current Fishing Moratility (F) \over F producing MSY (F_MSY))} } . MSY stands for maximal sustainable yield. When Failed to parse (MathML with SVG or PNG fallback (recommended for modern browsers and accessibility tools): Invalid response ("Math extension cannot connect to Restbase.") from server "https://en.wikipedia.org/api/rest_v1/":): {\displaystyle B < B_MSY} it signals of the species being overfished, when Failed to parse (MathML with SVG or PNG fallback (recommended for modern browsers and accessibility tools): Invalid response ("Math extension cannot connect to Restbase.") from server "https://en.wikipedia.org/api/rest_v1/":): {\displaystyle F > F_MSY} it signals overfishing.

Tuna Stock	Biomass Index	Fishing mortality index
Western BFT	0.48	0.85
Eastern BFT	1.73	0.24
median	1.12	0.81

Table 1. Source [4]. Indexes were produced by using 10 000 random trees an data from the last 10 years. The results show, that even though there are no sign of overfishing, the BFT is being overfished.

Spawning

According to [3] BFT does not spawn every year. In captivity, female BFT spawned every 2 – years. Also, the spawning happens after the female reaches a certain age (4 or 7 depending on the subspecies, but at age 5 tunas are view upon as mature or the BFT weighing around 25 kg [8]). The number of eggs laid is based off the age (the older the fish, the bigger in size) of the female. One female can lay anywhere from 5 to 45 million eggs. Warm temperatures tend to provide better spawning conditions [3]. Temperature fluctuations are believed to be related to changes in spawning, which might explain the 100 – 120 years cycle of the changes of the tuna population.

Mortality rate

The annual mortality rate of juvenile BFT is around 0.24 – 0.49 and for adult BFT it is 0.1, yet it is higher for female adult BFT [3]. The higher mortality rate for juvenile BFT is caused by being fished or caught for tuna ranching, environment or population density.

Fishing

BFT accounts for only 1 % of annual tuna catches (around 4.9 million metric tonnes of tuna are fished each year according to the ISS foundation [12]). BFT accounts for only 1 % of annual tuna catches (around 4.9 million metric tonnes of tuna are fished each year according to the ISS foundation [12]). This decade, around 40 – 50 000 metric tonnes of BFT were caught each year, which is way more, than the scientist advice. But, of course, there is a lot of money involved in the BFT market, so there is a movement trying to bump up the quotas, that are being instilled.

Image 1. Graph displaying the difference between actually caught BFT vs science advised numbers to preserve the species[10].

ICCAT provides a yearly statistics on the number of tonnes of tunas and tuna-like fish were caught each year since 1950. These documents can be obtained from their online databse. Only the data for the atlantic BFT were used for the purposes of this assignment and are avilable here.

From this data it is apparent, that since 1970 to 2018 the mean BFT caught is 34 XXXXXX FINISH THIS SECTION XXXX

BFT Population

According to The Pew Chartiable trust the population of BFT has risen since the 1995 thanks to the measures taken [13]. [2]

Tuna Stock	1995	2010
Western BFT	10 000 t	10 000 t
Eastern BFT	200 000 t	350 000 t
total	210 000 t	360 000t

Table 2. Estimated number of adult BFT in 1995 and 2010 [13].

These numbers look very optimistic and it might seem such as the species is on the right track to augment. Yet according to [2] this might not be the case.

Tuna Stock	1995	2007
spawning stock	201 479 t	78 724 t

Table 3. So even though the population got bigger, the spawning stock is only a fraction of it [2]. This is cause by the fact, that even juvenile BFT is fished. Most of the population is younger than 10 years, compared to decades before, when the ages were more venly distributed.

Quota

To preserve the species, some organisations (and scientists) are trying to reduce the quota for BFT caught. For example, the eastern BFT is supposed to be lowered from 28 000 tonnes to 13 500 tonnes [12]. The western BFT is regulated to 25 000 tonnes [3]. The secondary effect of the quotas instilled, is illegal fishing for BFT. It is assumed, that the illegal catch is likely 2 - 3x higher than the actual reported tuna catches[2]. Obviously the high demand for the BFT meat is here to blame and the prices, for which the BFTs are sold, are outrageous. Therefore, some organisation try to educate a persuade the consumers to take BFT off their menu now (and say goodbye to their beloved sashimi and other BFT foods) to let the species restore, rather than to take the tuna off the menu forever due to no BFTs being left.