Difference between revisions of "Simulation of pandemic spread"
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| − | Not so long ago we had the COVID-19 pandemic, which showed us the shortcomings in dealing with this type of problem. Pandemic propagation simulation can be a key tool to model, analyse and predict the evolution of a pandemic. This model deals specifically with viral diseases | + | Not so long ago we had the COVID-19 pandemic, which showed us the shortcomings in dealing with this type of problem. Pandemic propagation simulation can be a key tool to model, analyse and predict the evolution of a pandemic. This model deals specifically with viral diseases. The aim of this simulation is to be able to predict the spread of a pandemic virus, whereby using appropriate values, it can simulate the approximate development of a pandemic in the Czechia. |
=Method= | =Method= | ||
Revision as of 18:50, 10 January 2024
Title: Simulation of pandemic spread
Author: Daniel Kopecký
Method: Agent-based model
Tool: NetLogo
Contents
Introduction and problem definition
Not so long ago we had the COVID-19 pandemic, which showed us the shortcomings in dealing with this type of problem. Pandemic propagation simulation can be a key tool to model, analyse and predict the evolution of a pandemic. This model deals specifically with viral diseases. The aim of this simulation is to be able to predict the spread of a pandemic virus, whereby using appropriate values, it can simulate the approximate development of a pandemic in the Czechia.
Method
Model
Environment
Agents
Movement
Spread of infection
End of the simulation
Variables
- init-population - Population at the beginning of the simulation
- init-infected - Number of infected at the start of the simulation
- recovery.rate - Rate of recovery of infected individuals
- init-immune - Number of immune individuals at the beginning of the simulation
- quarantine.effort - Quarantine effort (affects the chance of infecting an individual)
- transmission.rate - Rate of virus transmission between individuals
- infected-mortality - Virus mortality rate
- healthcare.capacity - Capacity of health facilities (affects the rate of death of individuals)
- immunity? - Turns immunity on or off
