Difference between revisions of "Development of real estate prices in Prague"
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{{DISPLAYTITLE: Development of real estate prices in Prague (Vensim)}} | {{DISPLAYTITLE: Development of real estate prices in Prague (Vensim)}} | ||
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=Problem definition= | =Problem definition= | ||
| − | Every year, the price of real estate in Prague increases rapidly. As a result, | + | [[File:realestatedevelopment.JPG|thumb|600px|right||Pic. 1: Development of flat prices 2014-2020 <ref name="Real estate development"> Deloitte real index <i>Development of the selling price of flats from 2014 to 2020 |
| − | The purpose of this simulation is to show trends and development of prices for flats, houses, and other real estates in Prague for next ten years based on real historical data available on the Czech statistical office. The | + | </i> [online]. [cit. 2021-01-20]. Recheable from: https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/cz/Documents/real-estate/CZ-Real-index_3Q_2020.pdf</ref>]] |
| + | Every year, the price of real estate in Prague increases rapidly. | ||
| + | As a result, citizens can no longer afford to buy an apartment in the center of Prague and have to move to smaller villages and towns around Prague. | ||
| + | |||
| + | Therefore Prague becoming very inaccessible to ordinary citizens and, due to a large financial profit, has become popular field for wealthy investors and developers. | ||
| + | |||
| + | The purpose of this simulation is to show trends and development of prices for flats, houses, and other real estates in Prague for the next ten years based on real historical data available on the Czech statistical office. The aspects which are taken into count are the influence of the investors, mortgage rates, population, lack of flats. | ||
| + | |||
| + | The picture shows the development of the price of apartments in Prague from the beginning of 2014 to the end of 2020. During this time, the price of real estate has increased by an incredible 84%. | ||
=Method= | =Method= | ||
| − | The Vensim tool | + | A detailed procedure for solving individual problems is described at the selected variables below. The Vensim tool was chosen for solving this simulation, because it is ideal platform for longer-term simulations |
=Model= | =Model= | ||
| + | The final picture of the model: | ||
| + | |||
[[File:Realestatemodel.jpg]] | [[File:Realestatemodel.jpg]] | ||
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===Population=== | ===Population=== | ||
Population of the Czech Republic. This is a data from September 30, 2020, initial value 10 707 839 | Population of the Czech Republic. This is a data from September 30, 2020, initial value 10 707 839 | ||
| − | [https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/obyvatelstvo_lide | + | <ref name="obyvatelstvo_lide"> Český statistický úřad. <i>Obyvatelstvo lidé</i> [online]. [cit. 2020-01-20]. Reacheable from: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/obyvatelstvo_lide</ref> |
===Mortality=== | ===Mortality=== | ||
| − | Initial value is based on data from Czech statistical office and it is set to '''0 | + | Initial value is based on data from the Czech statistical office and it is set to '''0.0105'''. |
| − | [https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/graf-zive-narozeni-a-zemreli-v-ceske-republice | + | <ref name="narozenyazemreli"> Český statistický úřad. <i>Narození a zemřelí</i> [online]. [cit. 2020-01-20]. Reacheable from: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/graf-zive-narozeni-a-zemreli-v-ceske-republice</ref> |
| + | |||
===Natality=== | ===Natality=== | ||
| − | Initial value is based on data from Czech statistical office and it is set to '''0 | + | Initial value is based on data from Czech statistical office and it is set to '''0.0105'''. |
| + | <ref name="narozenyazemreli"> Český statistický úřad. <i>Narození a zemřelí</i> [online]. [cit. 2020-01-20]. Reacheable from: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/graf-zive-narozeni-a-zemreli-v-ceske-republice</ref> | ||
===Emigration=== | ===Emigration=== | ||
| − | This rate was calculated as emigrants / population. That is 21 300/10 707 839 = '''0 | + | This rate was calculated as emigrants / population. That is 21 300/10 707 839 = '''0.002'''. |
| − | [https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/pohyb-obyvatelstva-rok-2019 | + | <ref name="pohybobyvatelstva"> Český statistický úřad. <i>Pohyb obyvatelstva</i> [online]. [cit. 2020-01-20]. Reacheable from: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/pohyb-obyvatelstva-rok-2019</ref> |
| + | |||
===Imigration === | ===Imigration === | ||
| − | This rate was calculated as immigrants / population. That is 65 600/10 707 839 = '''0 | + | This rate was calculated as immigrants / population. That is 65 600/10 707 839 = '''0.006'''. |
| − | [https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/pohyb-obyvatelstva-rok-2019 | + | <ref name="pohybobyvatelstva"> Český statistický úřad. <i>Pohyb obyvatelstva</i> [online]. [cit. 2020-01-20]. Reacheable from: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/pohyb-obyvatelstva-rok-2019</ref> |
===Population increase=== | ===Population increase=== | ||
| − | Population growth in the Czech Republic. Calculated over the equation: Natality * Population * Immigration | + | Population growth in the Czech Republic. Calculated over the equation: '''Natality * Population * Immigration''' |
===Population decrease=== | ===Population decrease=== | ||
| − | Population decrease in the Czech Republic. Calculated over the equation: Mortality * Population * Emigration | + | Population decrease in the Czech Republic. Calculated over the equation: '''Mortality * Population * Emigration''' |
===Unemployment rate=== | ===Unemployment rate=== | ||
| − | Rate of unemployment people in Czech | + | Rate of unemployment people in Czech Republic. It is in about 277 015 people. It is set to '''0.038'''. |
| − | [https://www.mpsv.cz/-/nezamestnanost-zustala-v-zari-na-3-8-pocet-uchazecu-mirne-klesl | + | <ref name="nezamestnan"> Mpsv.cz <i>Nezaměstnaní</i> [online]. [cit. 2020-01-20]. Reacheable from: https://www.mpsv.cz/-/nezamestnanost-zustala-v-zari-na-3-8-pocet-uchazecu-mirne-klesl</ref> |
| + | |||
===Inflantion=== | ===Inflantion=== | ||
| − | The initial value of inflation was set on 0 | + | The initial value of inflation was set on '''0.03'''. |
| − | [https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/indexy-spotrebitelskych-cen-inflace-prosinec-2019 | + | <ref name="hypotéky"> Český statistický úřad <i>Inflace</i> [online]. [cit. 2020-01-20]. Reacheable from: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/indexy-spotrebitelskych-cen-inflace-prosinec-2019 |
| − | + | </ref> | |
| − | |||
| − | |||
| + | ===GDP of Czech Republic=== | ||
| + | Initial value is set as coeficient to '''0.95'''. | ||
| + | <ref name="nezamestnanost"> Kurzy.cz <i>GDP</i> [online]. [cit. 2020-01-20]. Reacheable from: https://www.kurzy.cz/makroekonomika/hdp/</ref> | ||
===Mortages rates=== | ===Mortages rates=== | ||
| − | Fio bank with 5 year of fixation - '''1 | + | Fio bank with 5 year of fixation - '''1.68%'''. This value was set in simulation. |
| − | [https://www.hypoindex.cz/clanky/aktualni-sazby-hypotek-skupina-csob-zlevnuje-hypoteky/ | + | <ref name="hypoteky"> Hypoindex.cz <i>Hypotéky</i> [online]. [cit. 2020-01-20]. Reacheable from: https://www.hypoindex.cz/clanky/aktualni-sazby-hypotek-skupina-csob-zlevnuje-hypoteky/</ref> |
===Quantitative easing=== | ===Quantitative easing=== | ||
| − | The government's intervention will increase inflation very noticeably, especially in times of pandemic. Therefore, its value is set to 0.31 | + | The government's intervention will increase inflation very noticeably, especially in times of pandemic. Therefore, its value is set to '''0.31''' |
===Lack of flats=== | ===Lack of flats=== | ||
| − | Lack of flats increases their prices. The significance coefficient is set to 0.9. | + | Lack of flats increases their prices. The significance coefficient is set to '''0.9.''' |
===Abundance of flats=== | ===Abundance of flats=== | ||
| Line 73: | Line 87: | ||
Factors that influence real estate growths | Factors that influence real estate growths | ||
Equation: (1+(Increased demand*Inflation*Investors*Lack of flats))*Price of real estates | Equation: (1+(Increased demand*Inflation*Investors*Lack of flats))*Price of real estates | ||
| + | <ref name="real estate"> Deloitte.com <i>Real estate</i> [online]. [cit. 2020-01-20]. Reacheable from: https://www2.deloitte.com/cz/cs/pages/real-estate/articles/cze-real-index.html</ref> | ||
===Price of real estates decrease=== | ===Price of real estates decrease=== | ||
Factors that influence real estate decrease | Factors that influence real estate decrease | ||
Equation:(1+(Abundance of flats*GDP*Unemployment))*Price of real estates | Equation:(1+(Abundance of flats*GDP*Unemployment))*Price of real estates | ||
| + | <ref name="real estate"> Deloitte.com <i>Real estate</i> [online]. [cit. 2020-01-20]. Reacheable from: https://www2.deloitte.com/cz/cs/pages/real-estate/articles/cze-real-index.html</ref> | ||
===Price of real estates=== | ===Price of real estates=== | ||
| − | Equation: '''Price of real estates=Price estates growth-Price of real estates decrease''' | + | Equation: '''Price of real estates = Price estates growth - Price of real estates decrease''' |
Initial value is set on '''94 300''' kč/m2. | Initial value is set on '''94 300''' kč/m2. | ||
| − | [https://www2.deloitte.com/cz/cs/pages/real-estate/articles/cze-real-index.html | + | <ref name="real estate"> Deloitte.com <i>Real estate</i> [online]. [cit. 2020-01-20]. Reacheable from: https://www2.deloitte.com/cz/cs/pages/real-estate/articles/cze-real-index.html</ref> |
=Results= | =Results= | ||
| − | [[File:Resultpopulation.jpg]] | + | [[File:Resulttable.jpg|thumb|200px|right||Table of development of flat prices 2020-2030]] |
| + | |||
| + | To interpret the results, I put two graphs and tables with resulted data. The first graph shows the development of the population in the Czech Republic. By 2030 we can expect in Czech Republic almost 11.2 billion inhabitants. This result is mostly given by the huge amount of immigration from eastern Europe because the mortality and natality in the Czech Republic are on a similar level. This graph was not the subject of this work, but it is an interesting secondary output. | ||
| + | |||
| + | |||
| + | The second graph and table describe the main purpose of this work, the trend and development of real estate in the next ten years. That is, from 2020 to 2030. The graph and table provide the result data according to this simulation. As is obvious from the table, the final price per square meter in Prague will be 148,018 Kč in the year 2030. Compared to the initial value from 2020, this is an increase of almost 57%. | ||
| + | |||
| + | |||
| + | |||
| + | [[File:Resultpopulation.jpg||Pic. 3: Graph of the population in Czech Republic 2020-2030]] | ||
[[File:Resultgraph.jpg]] | [[File:Resultgraph.jpg]] | ||
| − | |||
=Conclusion= | =Conclusion= | ||
| + | To conclude the achieved goals of this simulation, the trend of the recent years of real estate prices in Prague is increasing rapidly. In the fact,the most in comparison with all other European cities. As it follows from this simulation, the estimate of a price increase of 57% for the next 10 years. This prediction is still very modest, also due to the economic crisis. In ten years, this simulation can be compared with reality, and as the author of this study, I believe that the percentage increase will be even higher. For investors and ordinary citizens, investing in the purchase of an apartment in Prague is not only a suitable means of protecting money against inflation but even a means of getting rich. | ||
=Reference= | =Reference= | ||
<references/> | <references/> | ||
| + | |||
| + | =Code= | ||
| + | [[Media:realestate.mdl]] | ||
Latest revision as of 23:52, 20 January 2021
Name: Development of real estate prices in Prague
Author: Petr Netolický, netp02, 19.1.2021
Used tool: Vensim PLE 8.2.0
Contents
- 1 Problem definition
- 2 Method
- 3 Model
- 4 Variables
- 4.1 Population
- 4.2 Mortality
- 4.3 Natality
- 4.4 Emigration
- 4.5 Imigration
- 4.6 Population increase
- 4.7 Population decrease
- 4.8 Unemployment rate
- 4.9 Inflantion
- 4.10 GDP of Czech Republic
- 4.11 Mortages rates
- 4.12 Quantitative easing
- 4.13 Lack of flats
- 4.14 Abundance of flats
- 4.15 Investors
- 4.16 Price of real estates growth
- 4.17 Price of real estates decrease
- 4.18 Price of real estates
- 5 Results
- 6 Conclusion
- 7 Reference
- 8 Code
Problem definition
Every year, the price of real estate in Prague increases rapidly. As a result, citizens can no longer afford to buy an apartment in the center of Prague and have to move to smaller villages and towns around Prague.
Therefore Prague becoming very inaccessible to ordinary citizens and, due to a large financial profit, has become popular field for wealthy investors and developers.
The purpose of this simulation is to show trends and development of prices for flats, houses, and other real estates in Prague for the next ten years based on real historical data available on the Czech statistical office. The aspects which are taken into count are the influence of the investors, mortgage rates, population, lack of flats.
The picture shows the development of the price of apartments in Prague from the beginning of 2014 to the end of 2020. During this time, the price of real estate has increased by an incredible 84%.
Method
A detailed procedure for solving individual problems is described at the selected variables below. The Vensim tool was chosen for solving this simulation, because it is ideal platform for longer-term simulations
Model
The final picture of the model:
Variables
Population
Population of the Czech Republic. This is a data from September 30, 2020, initial value 10 707 839 [2]
Mortality
Initial value is based on data from the Czech statistical office and it is set to 0.0105. [3]
Natality
Initial value is based on data from Czech statistical office and it is set to 0.0105. [3]
Emigration
This rate was calculated as emigrants / population. That is 21 300/10 707 839 = 0.002. [4]
Imigration
This rate was calculated as immigrants / population. That is 65 600/10 707 839 = 0.006. [4]
Population increase
Population growth in the Czech Republic. Calculated over the equation: Natality * Population * Immigration
Population decrease
Population decrease in the Czech Republic. Calculated over the equation: Mortality * Population * Emigration
Unemployment rate
Rate of unemployment people in Czech Republic. It is in about 277 015 people. It is set to 0.038. [5]
Inflantion
The initial value of inflation was set on 0.03. [6]
GDP of Czech Republic
Initial value is set as coeficient to 0.95. [7]
Mortages rates
Fio bank with 5 year of fixation - 1.68%. This value was set in simulation. [8]
Quantitative easing
The government's intervention will increase inflation very noticeably, especially in times of pandemic. Therefore, its value is set to 0.31
Lack of flats
Lack of flats increases their prices. The significance coefficient is set to 0.9.
Abundance of flats
An abundance of flats decreases interest in flats increases their price. The coefficient factor is set to 0.2.
Investors
Investors' interest in flats increases their price. The coefficient factor is set to 0.55
Price of real estates growth
Factors that influence real estate growths Equation: (1+(Increased demand*Inflation*Investors*Lack of flats))*Price of real estates [9]
Price of real estates decrease
Factors that influence real estate decrease Equation:(1+(Abundance of flats*GDP*Unemployment))*Price of real estates [9]
Price of real estates
Equation: Price of real estates = Price estates growth - Price of real estates decrease Initial value is set on 94 300 kč/m2. [9]
Results
To interpret the results, I put two graphs and tables with resulted data. The first graph shows the development of the population in the Czech Republic. By 2030 we can expect in Czech Republic almost 11.2 billion inhabitants. This result is mostly given by the huge amount of immigration from eastern Europe because the mortality and natality in the Czech Republic are on a similar level. This graph was not the subject of this work, but it is an interesting secondary output.
The second graph and table describe the main purpose of this work, the trend and development of real estate in the next ten years. That is, from 2020 to 2030. The graph and table provide the result data according to this simulation. As is obvious from the table, the final price per square meter in Prague will be 148,018 Kč in the year 2030. Compared to the initial value from 2020, this is an increase of almost 57%.
Conclusion
To conclude the achieved goals of this simulation, the trend of the recent years of real estate prices in Prague is increasing rapidly. In the fact,the most in comparison with all other European cities. As it follows from this simulation, the estimate of a price increase of 57% for the next 10 years. This prediction is still very modest, also due to the economic crisis. In ten years, this simulation can be compared with reality, and as the author of this study, I believe that the percentage increase will be even higher. For investors and ordinary citizens, investing in the purchase of an apartment in Prague is not only a suitable means of protecting money against inflation but even a means of getting rich.
Reference
- ↑ Deloitte real index Development of the selling price of flats from 2014 to 2020 [online]. [cit. 2021-01-20]. Recheable from: https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/cz/Documents/real-estate/CZ-Real-index_3Q_2020.pdf
- ↑ Český statistický úřad. Obyvatelstvo lidé [online]. [cit. 2020-01-20]. Reacheable from: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/obyvatelstvo_lide
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 Český statistický úřad. Narození a zemřelí [online]. [cit. 2020-01-20]. Reacheable from: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/graf-zive-narozeni-a-zemreli-v-ceske-republice
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 Český statistický úřad. Pohyb obyvatelstva [online]. [cit. 2020-01-20]. Reacheable from: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/pohyb-obyvatelstva-rok-2019
- ↑ Mpsv.cz Nezaměstnaní [online]. [cit. 2020-01-20]. Reacheable from: https://www.mpsv.cz/-/nezamestnanost-zustala-v-zari-na-3-8-pocet-uchazecu-mirne-klesl
- ↑ Český statistický úřad Inflace [online]. [cit. 2020-01-20]. Reacheable from: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/indexy-spotrebitelskych-cen-inflace-prosinec-2019
- ↑ Kurzy.cz GDP [online]. [cit. 2020-01-20]. Reacheable from: https://www.kurzy.cz/makroekonomika/hdp/
- ↑ Hypoindex.cz Hypotéky [online]. [cit. 2020-01-20]. Reacheable from: https://www.hypoindex.cz/clanky/aktualni-sazby-hypotek-skupina-csob-zlevnuje-hypoteky/
- ↑ 9.0 9.1 9.2 Deloitte.com Real estate [online]. [cit. 2020-01-20]. Reacheable from: https://www2.deloitte.com/cz/cs/pages/real-estate/articles/cze-real-index.html
