Evolution of retirement pay in the Czech Republic - Revision history

Syca00 at 17:37, 20 January 2021

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Syca00 at 17:34, 20 January 2021

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Syca00 at 02:58, 20 January 2021

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Syca00 at 02:44, 20 January 2021

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Syca00 at 02:40, 20 January 2021

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Syca00 at 02:37, 20 January 2021

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Syca00 at 02:37, 20 January 2021

2021-01-20T02:37:44Z

Syca00: Created page with "=Problem definition= Nowadays a lot of people say that the Czech Republic will have problems with the retirement pay in the future and that the Czech Republic will have to adj..."

2021-01-20T02:37:21Z

Created page with "=Problem definition= Nowadays a lot of people say that the Czech Republic will have problems with the retirement pay in the future and that the Czech Republic will have to adj..."

New page

=Problem definition=
Nowadays a lot of people say that the Czech Republic will have problems with the retirement pay in the future and that the Czech Republic will have to adjust or modernize its pension system. Pessimists say that there will be no retirement pay in the future or that people will have to work longer. Due to these facts I decided to create a simulation, which will show the evolution of the average retirement pay in the Czech Republic for next 50 years.

=Method=
The VensimPLE modelling tool was used for this simulation. The simulation shows the evolution of the average retirement pay from year 2021 to 2071. It is divided into two parts about population and about average retirement pay. The part about population is used for another calculation during the simulation.

=Model=
[[File:Retirement_pay_evolution_model.png]]

== Variables ==

'''Population:'''
It shows the number of people in the Czech Republic. Initial value = '''10 707 839'''. It is calculated as: '''Population growth - Population decrease'''. <ref name="PocetObyvatelstva"> Český statistický úřad. Obyvatelstvo [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/obyvatelstvo_lide

'''Population growth:'''
It shows people, who increase the number of population. It is calculated as: '''Immigrants * Natality * Population'''.

'''Population decrease:'''
It shows people, who decrease the number of population. It is calculated as: '''Emigrants * Mortality * Population'''.

'''Natality:'''
This variable shows the annual increase in births and it is set to '''1,01048'''.<ref name="NarozeniUmrti"> Český statistický úřad. Pohyb obyvatelstva - rok 2019 [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/pohyb-obyvatelstva-rok-2019

'''Mortality:'''
This variable shows the annual population decline and it is set to '''0,01049'''.<ref name="NarozeniUmrti"> Český statistický úřad. Pohyb obyvatelstva - rok 2019 [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/pohyb-obyvatelstva-rok-2019

'''Immigrants:'''
This variable shows the number of people, who came in the Czech Republic. It is calculated as: '''0,00612 * Yearly growth of immigrants'''.<ref name="NarozeniUmrti"> Český statistický úřad. Pohyb obyvatelstva - rok 2019 [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/pohyb-obyvatelstva-rok-2019

'''Emmigrants:'''
This variable shows the number of people, who went away from the Czech Republic. It is set to '''0,00199'''.<ref name="NarozeniUmrti"> Český statistický úřad. Pohyb obyvatelstva - rok 2019 [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/pohyb-obyvatelstva-rok-2019

'''Yearly growth of immigrants:'''
This variable shows the annual increase of immigrants. It is set to '''1,12766'''.<ref name="NarozeniUmrti"> Český statistický úřad. Pohyb obyvatelstva - rok 2019 [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/pohyb-obyvatelstva-rok-2019

'''Economically active population:'''
This variable is calculated as: '''(Population * 0.767) + (Population * (Immigrants - Emigrants))'''. <ref name="Aktivni"> Český statistický úřad. Míry zaměstnanosti, nezaměstnanosti a ekonomické aktivity - leden 2020 [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/miry-zamestnanosti-nezamestnanosti-a-ekonomicke-aktivity-leden-2020

'''Economically passive population:'''
This variable is calculated as: '''Population - Economically active population'''.

'''GDP:'''
This variable shows the growth of GDP in the Czech Republic. Initial value = '''1,024'''. It is calculated as: '''Production and product taxes - Consumption and subsidies'''.<ref name="GDP"> Kurzy.cz. HDP 2021, vývoj hdp v ČR [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.kurzy.cz/makroekonomika/hdp/

'''Production and product taxes:'''
This variable shows the increase in production and product taxes. It is set to '''1,04891'''.<ref name="GDPVariables"> Český statistický úřad. HDP Výrobní metoda [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://apl.czso.cz/pll/rocenka/rocenkavyber.makroek_prod

'''Consumption and subsidies:'''
This variable shows the increase of consumption and subsidies. It is set to '''1,05132'''.<ref name="GDPVariables"> Český statistický úřad. HDP Výrobní metoda [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://apl.czso.cz/pll/rocenka/rocenkavyber.makroek_prod

'''Retirement pay growth:'''
This variable shows the increase of retirement pay. It is calculated as: '''Population growth rate * Average retirement pay * Average growth of gross average wage'''.

'''Retirement pay decrease:'''
This variable shows the decrease of retirement pay. It is calculated as: '''Average retirement pay * Population growth rate'''.

'''Gross average wage of men:'''
This variable shows the annual growth of the gross average wage of men. It is set to '''1,03'''.<ref name="Wage"> Český statistický úřad. Průměrné mzdy - 3. čtvrtletí 2020 [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/prumerne-mzdy-3-ctvrtleti-2020

'''Gross average wage of women:'''
This variable shows the annual growth of the gross average wage of women. It is set to '''1,04'''.<ref name="Wage"> Český statistický úřad. Průměrné mzdy - 3. čtvrtletí 2020 [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/prumerne-mzdy-3-ctvrtleti-2020

'''Average growth of gross average wage:'''
This variable shows the average annual growth of the gross average wage. It is calculated as: '''((Growth of gross average wage of men + Growth of gross average wage of women)/2) * GDP'''.

'''Population growth rate:'''
This variable shows the annual growth of population. It is calculated from results of population and it is set to '''1.06807'''.

'''Average retirement pay:'''
This is the variable that we are examining. Initial value = '''14 397''' and it is calculated as: '''Retirement pay growth - Retirement pay decrease'''.<ref name="Pay"> investujeme.cz. Jak vysoký je průměrný důchod v ČR a bude se příští rok opět valorizovat? [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.investujeme.cz/clanky/prumerny-duchod-cr-2020/

=Results=
[[File:Populace.png]]
[[File:PrumerPay.png]]
 
The results shows that the average retirement pay of the Czech Republic will increase to year 2045 and then it will decrease. Maximal average retirement pay will be 31 464 Kč. It is also interesting that the average retirement pay will be 12 962 Kč in 2071. It is lower than in 2021, when it was 14 397 Kč. Then we can also see the results of population. Population will rise from 10 707 800 to 15 141 000. It also means that the economically active and passive population will rise. The economically active population will be 11 687 500 in 2071 and the economically passive population will be 3 453 490 in 2071.

=Conclusion=
In this simulation I created a model, which shows the evolution of the average retirement pay of the Czech Republic in next 70 years. It also shows possible evolution of population of the Czech Republic. The results are very interesting but they are probably inaccurate because the model is simplified and does not contain all possible variables. On the other hand, It shows that the pension system of the Czech Republic is sustainable in next 70 years and it relatively matches the results of Deloitte research, which also shows that the pension system of the Czech Republic is sustainable.<ref name="Deloitte"> Deloitte. Jaké budou důchody? [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/cz/Documents/deloitte-analytics/Jake_budou_duchody.pdf

=Code=
[[File:Retirement_pay_evolution.mdl]]

=References=
<references/>

@@ Line 97: / Line 97: @@
 =Conclusion=
-In this simulation I created a model, which shows the evolution of the average retirement pay of the Czech Republic in next 70 years. It also shows possible evolution of population of the Czech Republic. The results are very interesting but they are probably inaccurate because the model is simplified and does not contain all possible variables. On the other hand, I think that according to the growth of the economically active and passive population, we can say that the pension system of the Czech Republic is sustainable in next 70 years. We can for example compare it with the results of Deloitte research, which also shows that the pension system of the Czech Republic is sustainable. However, the evolution of retirement pay is different.<ref name="Deloitte"> Deloitte. <i>Jaké budou důchody?</i>. [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/cz/Documents/deloitte-analytics/Jake_budou_duchody.pdf</ref>
+In this simulation I created a model, which shows the evolution of the average retirement pay of the Czech Republic in next 70 years. It also shows possible evolution of population of the Czech Republic. The results are very interesting but they are probably inaccurate because the model is simplified and does not contain all possible variables. On the other hand, I think that, according to the growth of the economically active and passive population, we can say that the pension system of the Czech Republic is sustainable in next 70 years. We can for example compare it with the results of Deloitte research, which also shows that the pension system of the Czech Republic is sustainable. However, the evolution of retirement pay is different.<ref name="Deloitte"> Deloitte. <i>Jaké budou důchody?</i>. [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/cz/Documents/deloitte-analytics/Jake_budou_duchody.pdf</ref>
 =Code=

@@ Line 97: / Line 97: @@
 =Conclusion=
-In this simulation I created a model, which shows the evolution of the average retirement pay of the Czech Republic in next 70 years. It also shows possible evolution of population of the Czech Republic. The results are very interesting but they are probably inaccurate because the model is simplified and does not contain all possible variables. On the other hand, It shows that the pension system of the Czech Republic is sustainable in next 70 years and it relatively matches the results of Deloitte research, which also shows that the pension system of the Czech Republic is sustainable.<ref name="Deloitte"> Deloitte. <i>Jaké budou důchody?</i>. [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/cz/Documents/deloitte-analytics/Jake_budou_duchody.pdf</ref>
+In this simulation I created a model, which shows the evolution of the average retirement pay of the Czech Republic in next 70 years. It also shows possible evolution of population of the Czech Republic. The results are very interesting but they are probably inaccurate because the model is simplified and does not contain all possible variables. On the other hand, I think that according to the growth of the economically active and passive population, we can say that the pension system of the Czech Republic is sustainable in next 70 years. We can for example compare it with the results of Deloitte research, which also shows that the pension system of the Czech Republic is sustainable. However, the evolution of retirement pay is different.<ref name="Deloitte"> Deloitte. <i>Jaké budou důchody?</i>. [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/cz/Documents/deloitte-analytics/Jake_budou_duchody.pdf</ref>
 =Code=

@@ Line 11: / Line 11: @@
 '''Population:'''
-It shows the number of people in the Czech Republic. Initial value = '''10 707 839'''. It is calculated as: '''Population growth - Population decrease'''. <ref name="PocetObyvatelstva"> Český statistický úřad. <i>Obyvatelstvo</i> [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/obyvatelstvo_lide</ref>
+It shows the number of people in the Czech Republic. Initial value = '''10 707 839'''. It is calculated as: '''Population growth - Population decrease'''. <ref name="PocetObyvatelstva"> Český statistický úřad. <i>Obyvatelstvo</i>. [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/obyvatelstvo_lide</ref>
 '''Population growth:'''
@@ Line 20: / Line 20: @@
 '''Natality:'''
-This variable shows the annual increase in births and it is set to '''1,01048'''.<ref name="NarozeniUmrti"> Český statistický úřad. <i>Pohyb obyvatelstva - rok 2019</i> [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/pohyb-obyvatelstva-rok-2019</ref>
+This variable shows the annual increase in births and it is set to '''1,01048'''.<ref name="NarozeniUmrti"> Český statistický úřad. <i>Pohyb obyvatelstva - rok 2019</i>. [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/pohyb-obyvatelstva-rok-2019</ref>
 '''Mortality:'''
-This variable shows the annual population decline and it is set to '''0,01049'''.<ref name="NarozeniUmrti"> Český statistický úřad. <i>Pohyb obyvatelstva - rok 2019</i> [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/pohyb-obyvatelstva-rok-2019</ref>
+This variable shows the annual population decline and it is set to '''0,01049'''.<ref name="NarozeniUmrti"> Český statistický úřad. <i>Pohyb obyvatelstva - rok 2019</i>. [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/pohyb-obyvatelstva-rok-2019</ref>
 '''Immigrants:'''
-This variable shows the number of people, who came in the Czech Republic. It is calculated as: '''0,00612 * Yearly growth of immigrants'''.<ref name="NarozeniUmrti"> Český statistický úřad. <i>Pohyb obyvatelstva - rok 2019</i> [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/pohyb-obyvatelstva-rok-2019</ref>
+This variable shows the number of people, who came in the Czech Republic. It is calculated as: '''0,00612 * Yearly growth of immigrants'''.<ref name="NarozeniUmrti"> Český statistický úřad. <i>Pohyb obyvatelstva - rok 2019</i>. [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/pohyb-obyvatelstva-rok-2019</ref>
 '''Emmigrants:'''
-This variable shows the number of people, who went away from the Czech Republic. It is set to '''0,00199'''.<ref name="NarozeniUmrti"> Český statistický úřad. <i>Pohyb obyvatelstva - rok 2019</i> [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/pohyb-obyvatelstva-rok-2019</ref>
+This variable shows the number of people, who went away from the Czech Republic. It is set to '''0,00199'''.<ref name="NarozeniUmrti"> Český statistický úřad. <i>Pohyb obyvatelstva - rok 2019</i>. [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/pohyb-obyvatelstva-rok-2019</ref>
 '''Yearly growth of immigrants:'''
-This variable shows the annual increase of immigrants. It is set to '''1,12766'''.<ref name="NarozeniUmrti"> Český statistický úřad. <i>Pohyb obyvatelstva - rok 2019</i> [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/pohyb-obyvatelstva-rok-2019</ref>
+This variable shows the annual increase of immigrants. It is set to '''1,12766'''.<ref name="NarozeniUmrti"> Český statistický úřad. <i>Pohyb obyvatelstva - rok 2019</i>. [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/pohyb-obyvatelstva-rok-2019</ref>
 '''Economically active population:'''
-This variable is calculated as: '''(Population * 0.767) + (Population * (Immigrants - Emigrants))'''. <ref name="Aktivni"> Český statistický úřad. <i>Míry zaměstnanosti, nezaměstnanosti a ekonomické aktivity - leden 2020</i> [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/miry-zamestnanosti-nezamestnanosti-a-ekonomicke-aktivity-leden-2020</ref>
+This variable is calculated as: '''(Population * 0.767) + (Population * (Immigrants - Emigrants))'''. <ref name="Aktivni"> Český statistický úřad. <i>Míry zaměstnanosti, nezaměstnanosti a ekonomické aktivity - leden 2020</i>. [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/miry-zamestnanosti-nezamestnanosti-a-ekonomicke-aktivity-leden-2020</ref>
 '''Economically passive population:'''
@@ Line 41: / Line 41: @@
 '''GDP:'''
-This variable shows the growth of GDP in the Czech Republic. Initial value = '''1,024'''. It is calculated as: '''Production and product taxes - Consumption and subsidies'''.<ref name="GDP"> Kurzy.cz. <i>HDP 2021, vývoj hdp v ČR</i> [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.kurzy.cz/makroekonomika/hdp/</ref>
+This variable shows the growth of GDP in the Czech Republic. Initial value = '''1,024'''. It is calculated as: '''Production and product taxes - Consumption and subsidies'''.<ref name="GDP"> Kurzy.cz. <i>HDP 2021, vývoj hdp v ČR</i>. [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.kurzy.cz/makroekonomika/hdp/</ref>
 '''Production and product taxes:'''
-This variable shows the increase in production and product taxes. It is set to '''1,04891'''.<ref name="GDPVariables"> Český statistický úřad. <i>HDP Výrobní metoda</i> [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://apl.czso.cz/pll/rocenka/rocenkavyber.makroek_prod</ref>
+This variable shows the increase in production and product taxes. It is set to '''1,04891'''.<ref name="GDPVariables"> Český statistický úřad. <i>HDP Výrobní metoda</i>. [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://apl.czso.cz/pll/rocenka/rocenkavyber.makroek_prod</ref>
 '''Consumption and subsidies:'''
-This variable shows the increase of consumption and subsidies. It is set to '''1,05132'''.<ref name="GDPVariables"> Český statistický úřad. <i>HDP Výrobní metoda</i> [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://apl.czso.cz/pll/rocenka/rocenkavyber.makroek_prod</ref>
+This variable shows the increase of consumption and subsidies. It is set to '''1,05132'''.<ref name="GDPVariables"> Český statistický úřad. <i>HDP Výrobní metoda</i>. [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://apl.czso.cz/pll/rocenka/rocenkavyber.makroek_prod</ref>
 '''Retirement pay growth:'''
@@ Line 56: / Line 56: @@
 '''Gross average wage of men:'''
-This variable shows the annual growth of the gross average wage of men. It is set to '''1,03'''.<ref name="Wage"> Český statistický úřad. <i>Průměrné mzdy - 3. čtvrtletí 2020</i> [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/prumerne-mzdy-3-ctvrtleti-2020</ref>
+This variable shows the annual growth of the gross average wage of men. It is set to '''1,03'''.<ref name="Wage"> Český statistický úřad. <i>Průměrné mzdy - 3. čtvrtletí 2020</i>. [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/prumerne-mzdy-3-ctvrtleti-2020</ref>
 '''Gross average wage of women:'''
-This variable shows the annual growth of the gross average wage of women. It is set to '''1,04'''.<ref name="Wage"> Český statistický úřad. <i>Průměrné mzdy - 3. čtvrtletí 2020</i> [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/prumerne-mzdy-3-ctvrtleti-2020</ref>
+This variable shows the annual growth of the gross average wage of women. It is set to '''1,04'''.<ref name="Wage"> Český statistický úřad. <i>Průměrné mzdy - 3. čtvrtletí 2020</i>. [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/prumerne-mzdy-3-ctvrtleti-2020</ref>
 '''Average growth of gross average wage:'''
@@ Line 68: / Line 68: @@
 '''Average retirement pay:'''
-This is the variable that we are examining. Initial value = '''14 397''' and it is calculated as: '''Retirement pay growth - Retirement pay decrease'''.<ref name="Pay"> investujeme.cz. <i>Jak vysoký je průměrný důchod v ČR a bude se příští rok opět valorizovat?</i> [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.investujeme.cz/clanky/prumerny-duchod-cr-2020/</ref>
+This is the variable that we are examining. Initial value = '''14 397''' and it is calculated as: '''Retirement pay growth - Retirement pay decrease'''.<ref name="Pay"> investujeme.cz. <i>Jak vysoký je průměrný důchod v ČR a bude se příští rok opět valorizovat?</i>. [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.investujeme.cz/clanky/prumerny-duchod-cr-2020/</ref>
 =Results=
@@ Line 77: / Line 77: @@
 =Conclusion=
-In this simulation I created a model, which shows the evolution of the average retirement pay of the Czech Republic in next 70 years. It also shows possible evolution of population of the Czech Republic. The results are very interesting but they are probably inaccurate because the model is simplified and does not contain all possible variables. On the other hand, It shows that the pension system of the Czech Republic is sustainable in next 70 years and it relatively matches the results of Deloitte research, which also shows that the pension system of the Czech Republic is sustainable.<ref name="Deloitte"> Deloitte. <i>Jaké budou důchody?</i> [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/cz/Documents/deloitte-analytics/Jake_budou_duchody.pdf</ref>
+In this simulation I created a model, which shows the evolution of the average retirement pay of the Czech Republic in next 70 years. It also shows possible evolution of population of the Czech Republic. The results are very interesting but they are probably inaccurate because the model is simplified and does not contain all possible variables. On the other hand, It shows that the pension system of the Czech Republic is sustainable in next 70 years and it relatively matches the results of Deloitte research, which also shows that the pension system of the Czech Republic is sustainable.<ref name="Deloitte"> Deloitte. <i>Jaké budou důchody?</i>. [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/cz/Documents/deloitte-analytics/Jake_budou_duchody.pdf</ref>
 =Code=

@@ Line 11: / Line 11: @@
 '''Population:'''
-It shows the number of people in the Czech Republic. Initial value = '''10 707 839'''. It is calculated as: '''Population growth - Population decrease'''. <ref name="PocetObyvatelstva"> Český statistický úřad. <i>Obyvatelstvo</i> [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/obyvatelstvo_lide
+It shows the number of people in the Czech Republic. Initial value = '''10 707 839'''. It is calculated as: '''Population growth - Population decrease'''. <ref name="PocetObyvatelstva"> Český statistický úřad. <i>Obyvatelstvo</i> [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/obyvatelstvo_lide</ref>
 '''Population growth:'''
@@ Line 20: / Line 20: @@
 '''Natality:'''
-This variable shows the annual increase in births and it is set to '''1,01048'''.<ref name="NarozeniUmrti"> Český statistický úřad. <i>Pohyb obyvatelstva - rok 2019</i> [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/pohyb-obyvatelstva-rok-2019
+This variable shows the annual increase in births and it is set to '''1,01048'''.<ref name="NarozeniUmrti"> Český statistický úřad. <i>Pohyb obyvatelstva - rok 2019</i> [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/pohyb-obyvatelstva-rok-2019</ref>
 '''Mortality:'''
-This variable shows the annual population decline and it is set to '''0,01049'''.<ref name="NarozeniUmrti"> Český statistický úřad. <i>Pohyb obyvatelstva - rok 2019</i> [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/pohyb-obyvatelstva-rok-2019
+This variable shows the annual population decline and it is set to '''0,01049'''.<ref name="NarozeniUmrti"> Český statistický úřad. <i>Pohyb obyvatelstva - rok 2019</i> [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/pohyb-obyvatelstva-rok-2019</ref>
 '''Immigrants:'''
-This variable shows the number of people, who came in the Czech Republic. It is calculated as: '''0,00612 * Yearly growth of immigrants'''.<ref name="NarozeniUmrti"> Český statistický úřad. <i>Pohyb obyvatelstva - rok 2019</i> [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/pohyb-obyvatelstva-rok-2019
+This variable shows the number of people, who came in the Czech Republic. It is calculated as: '''0,00612 * Yearly growth of immigrants'''.<ref name="NarozeniUmrti"> Český statistický úřad. <i>Pohyb obyvatelstva - rok 2019</i> [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/pohyb-obyvatelstva-rok-2019</ref>
 '''Emmigrants:'''
-This variable shows the number of people, who went away from the Czech Republic. It is set to '''0,00199'''.<ref name="NarozeniUmrti"> Český statistický úřad. <i>Pohyb obyvatelstva - rok 2019</i> [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/pohyb-obyvatelstva-rok-2019
+This variable shows the number of people, who went away from the Czech Republic. It is set to '''0,00199'''.<ref name="NarozeniUmrti"> Český statistický úřad. <i>Pohyb obyvatelstva - rok 2019</i> [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/pohyb-obyvatelstva-rok-2019</ref>
 '''Yearly growth of immigrants:'''
-This variable shows the annual increase of immigrants. It is set to '''1,12766'''.<ref name="NarozeniUmrti"> Český statistický úřad. <i>Pohyb obyvatelstva - rok 2019</i> [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/pohyb-obyvatelstva-rok-2019
+This variable shows the annual increase of immigrants. It is set to '''1,12766'''.<ref name="NarozeniUmrti"> Český statistický úřad. <i>Pohyb obyvatelstva - rok 2019</i> [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/pohyb-obyvatelstva-rok-2019</ref>
 '''Economically active population:'''
-This variable is calculated as: '''(Population * 0.767) + (Population * (Immigrants - Emigrants))'''. <ref name="Aktivni"> Český statistický úřad. <i>Míry zaměstnanosti, nezaměstnanosti a ekonomické aktivity - leden 2020</i> [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/miry-zamestnanosti-nezamestnanosti-a-ekonomicke-aktivity-leden-2020
+This variable is calculated as: '''(Population * 0.767) + (Population * (Immigrants - Emigrants))'''. <ref name="Aktivni"> Český statistický úřad. <i>Míry zaměstnanosti, nezaměstnanosti a ekonomické aktivity - leden 2020</i> [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/miry-zamestnanosti-nezamestnanosti-a-ekonomicke-aktivity-leden-2020</ref>
 '''Economically passive population:'''
@@ Line 41: / Line 41: @@
 '''GDP:'''
-This variable shows the growth of GDP in the Czech Republic. Initial value = '''1,024'''. It is calculated as: '''Production and product taxes - Consumption and subsidies'''.<ref name="GDP"> Kurzy.cz. <i>HDP 2021, vývoj hdp v ČR</i> [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.kurzy.cz/makroekonomika/hdp/
+This variable shows the growth of GDP in the Czech Republic. Initial value = '''1,024'''. It is calculated as: '''Production and product taxes - Consumption and subsidies'''.<ref name="GDP"> Kurzy.cz. <i>HDP 2021, vývoj hdp v ČR</i> [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.kurzy.cz/makroekonomika/hdp/</ref>
 '''Production and product taxes:'''
-This variable shows the increase in production and product taxes. It is set to '''1,04891'''.<ref name="GDPVariables"> Český statistický úřad. <i>HDP Výrobní metoda</i> [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://apl.czso.cz/pll/rocenka/rocenkavyber.makroek_prod
+This variable shows the increase in production and product taxes. It is set to '''1,04891'''.<ref name="GDPVariables"> Český statistický úřad. <i>HDP Výrobní metoda</i> [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://apl.czso.cz/pll/rocenka/rocenkavyber.makroek_prod</ref>
 '''Consumption and subsidies:'''
-This variable shows the increase of consumption and subsidies. It is set to '''1,05132'''.<ref name="GDPVariables"> Český statistický úřad. <i>HDP Výrobní metoda</i> [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://apl.czso.cz/pll/rocenka/rocenkavyber.makroek_prod
+This variable shows the increase of consumption and subsidies. It is set to '''1,05132'''.<ref name="GDPVariables"> Český statistický úřad. <i>HDP Výrobní metoda</i> [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://apl.czso.cz/pll/rocenka/rocenkavyber.makroek_prod</ref>
 '''Retirement pay growth:'''
@@ Line 56: / Line 56: @@
 '''Gross average wage of men:'''
-This variable shows the annual growth of the gross average wage of men. It is set to '''1,03'''.<ref name="Wage"> Český statistický úřad. <i>Průměrné mzdy - 3. čtvrtletí 2020</i> [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/prumerne-mzdy-3-ctvrtleti-2020
+This variable shows the annual growth of the gross average wage of men. It is set to '''1,03'''.<ref name="Wage"> Český statistický úřad. <i>Průměrné mzdy - 3. čtvrtletí 2020</i> [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/prumerne-mzdy-3-ctvrtleti-2020</ref>
 '''Gross average wage of women:'''
-This variable shows the annual growth of the gross average wage of women. It is set to '''1,04'''.<ref name="Wage"> Český statistický úřad. <i>Průměrné mzdy - 3. čtvrtletí 2020</i> [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/prumerne-mzdy-3-ctvrtleti-2020
+This variable shows the annual growth of the gross average wage of women. It is set to '''1,04'''.<ref name="Wage"> Český statistický úřad. <i>Průměrné mzdy - 3. čtvrtletí 2020</i> [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/cri/prumerne-mzdy-3-ctvrtleti-2020</ref>
 '''Average growth of gross average wage:'''
@@ Line 68: / Line 68: @@
 '''Average retirement pay:'''
-This is the variable that we are examining. Initial value = '''14 397''' and it is calculated as: '''Retirement pay growth - Retirement pay decrease'''.<ref name="Pay"> investujeme.cz. <i>Jak vysoký je průměrný důchod v ČR a bude se příští rok opět valorizovat?</i> [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.investujeme.cz/clanky/prumerny-duchod-cr-2020/
+This is the variable that we are examining. Initial value = '''14 397''' and it is calculated as: '''Retirement pay growth - Retirement pay decrease'''.<ref name="Pay"> investujeme.cz. <i>Jak vysoký je průměrný důchod v ČR a bude se příští rok opět valorizovat?</i> [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www.investujeme.cz/clanky/prumerny-duchod-cr-2020/</ref>
 =Results=
@@ Line 77: / Line 77: @@
 =Conclusion=
-In this simulation I created a model, which shows the evolution of the average retirement pay of the Czech Republic in next 70 years. It also shows possible evolution of population of the Czech Republic. The results are very interesting but they are probably inaccurate because the model is simplified and does not contain all possible variables. On the other hand, It shows that the pension system of the Czech Republic is sustainable in next 70 years and it relatively matches the results of Deloitte research, which also shows that the pension system of the Czech Republic is sustainable.<ref name="Deloitte"> Deloitte. <i>Jaké budou důchody?</i> [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/cz/Documents/deloitte-analytics/Jake_budou_duchody.pdf
+In this simulation I created a model, which shows the evolution of the average retirement pay of the Czech Republic in next 70 years. It also shows possible evolution of population of the Czech Republic. The results are very interesting but they are probably inaccurate because the model is simplified and does not contain all possible variables. On the other hand, It shows that the pension system of the Czech Republic is sustainable in next 70 years and it relatively matches the results of Deloitte research, which also shows that the pension system of the Czech Republic is sustainable.<ref name="Deloitte"> Deloitte. <i>Jaké budou důchody?</i> [online]. [cit. 2021-01-18]. Avaliable at: https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/cz/Documents/deloitte-analytics/Jake_budou_duchody.pdf</ref>
 =Code=

@@ Line 8: / Line 8: @@
 [[File:Retirement_pay_evolution_model.png]]
-==Variables==
+=Variables=
 '''Population:'''

@@ Line 94: / Line 94: @@
 [[File:PrumerPay.png]]
 <br />
-The results shows that the average retirement pay of the Czech Republic will increase to year 2045 and then it will decrease. Maximal average retirement pay will be 31 464 Kč. It is also interesting that the average retirement pay will be 12 962 Kč in 2071. It is lower than in 2021, when it was 14 397 Kč. Then we can also see the results of population. Population will rise from 10 707 800 to 15 141 000. It also means that the economically active and passive population will rise. The economically active population will be 11 687 500 in 2071 and the economically passive population will be 3 453 490 in 2071.
+The results show that the average retirement pay of the Czech Republic will increase to year 2045 and then it will decrease. Maximal average retirement pay will be 31 464 Kč. It is also interesting that the average retirement pay will be 12 962 Kč in 2071. It is lower than in 2021, when it was 14 397 Kč. Then we can also see the results of population. Population will rise from 10 707 800 to 15 141 000. It also means that the economically active and passive population will rise. The economically active population will be 11 687 500 in 2071 and the economically passive population will be 3 453 490 in 2071.
 =Conclusion=